Supply Contraction Drives Up Tantalum Ore Prices, Smelting Cost Increases Face Short-Term Obstacles [SMM Analysis]

Recently, the domestic tantalum market, driven by a significant rise in raw material costs, has shown an overall upward trend. Although the pace of price increases for tantalum ingots has lagged slightly, the medium-term upward logic remains clear.

Tantalum ore prices have experienced a substantial increase, with the China cif price quoted at $160–165 per pound. This surge is primarily driven by two factors. On one hand, landslides and production halts at core mining areas have directly led to a substantial contraction in global supply, causing a rapid tightening of available spot cargo. Downstream electronics manufacturers and traders, motivated by bullish sentiment, have engaged in concentrated stockpiling and price locking, further exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch in the circulation chain and collectively pushing up transaction prices for ore. On the other hand, overseas market sentiment has recovered, and offers in the overseas market continue to rise.

Driven by the strength in raw materials, quotations for tantalum-based products have gradually been raised. Transactions for 99.5% tantalum oxide have occurred at 3,900 yuan/kg, and for 99.95% tantalum ingots at 5,500 yuan/kg, with some manufacturers offering prices as high as 6,000 yuan/kg. In the short term, some traders are selling off tantalum ingots, creating interference with the upward movement of spot prices and causing a temporary lack of momentum for ingot price increases. However, supported by the strong cost base from the significant rise in tantalum ore prices, downstream procurement demand is expected to be released quickly. Short-term disruptions are unlikely to alter the medium-term upward trend, and tantalum ingot quotations are anticipated to soon catch up with the increases, with the overall tantalum market maintaining its strong performance.