I. Pre-Holiday Closing: Decline Slows Down, 17,000 Yuan/Ton Mark Forms Strong Support
In the last working week before the Spring Festival, after the electrolytic manganese market fell by a cumulative 600 yuan/ton last week, the downward momentum slowed down significantly and gradually entered a weak stable state. The mainstream tax-included ex-factory prices in the Manganese Triangle and Guangxi regions were quoted at 17,200-17,400 yuan/ton, and the distribution prices at Tianjin Port and Huangpu Port were 17,400-17,600 yuan/ton, with the low-price range approaching the key 17,000 yuan/ton mark.
In terms of market sentiment, the previous panic selling has basically subsided, and spot sellers' willingness to maintain prices has strengthened. In terms of transaction structure, pre-holiday inquiries and spot transactions continued to shrink, most traders left the market for holidays in advance, and only steel mills completed the last round of pre-holiday stockpiling and purchasing, becoming the core force supporting the market and curbing further declines. Overall, the pre-holiday market has formed a pattern of "price bottoming out, shrinking transactions, and stable sentiment".
II. Holiday Overview: Sluggish Transactions, Stable Prices, Significant Output Decline
During the Spring Festival holiday, the electrolytic manganese market entered a "freezing period", showing overall characteristics of "stable prices, stagnant transactions, and contracted supply".
Price Performance: Spot market quotations basically continued the pre-holiday level, with the mainstream range maintaining at 17,300 yuan/ton and no significant fluctuations. Due to the shutdown of most enterprises for holidays and the closure of traders, the market lacked support from actual transactions, and prices mainly remained "nominally stable", with both buyers and sellers in a wait-and-see state.
Output Changes: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, equipment maintenance and environmental protection controls in some regions, electrolytic manganese output in February dropped significantly. Most small and medium-sized smelting enterprises stopped production one after another in early February. Although leading enterprises maintained operation of some production lines, the overall operating rate decreased significantly compared with January. Coupled with the small number of natural days in February, it is expected that the national electrolytic manganese output in February will drop by a relatively high margin month-on-month, and the contraction on the supply side has laid the foundation for price stabilization after the holiday.
III. Market Outlook: Resumption Imminent in March, Stockpiling Demand Will Ignite Market Vitality
With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the industry has entered the countdown to resumption of production. The electrolytic manganese market is expected to usher in a recovery trend of "rising volume and price" in March, with the core logic focusing on both supply and demand sides:
Demand Side: In March, downstream steel mills, stainless steel enterprises and new energy cathode material enterprises will resume production in a concentrated manner. After the pre-holiday stockpiling is exhausted, the stockpiling demand will be released centrally. On the one hand, the off-season of the steel industry is gradually passing, and the recovery of the operating rate of infrastructure projects will drive the recovery of traditional rigid demand; on the other hand, the continuous growth in demand for battery-grade manganese tetroxide in the new energy field will transmit to the upstream of electrolytic manganese, forming dual demand support.
Supply Side: The significant contraction of output in February will keep the post-holiday spot inventory at a relatively low level. Although some enterprises plan to resume production in March, it will take a certain cycle for production capacity to be released. In the short term, the market will present a pattern of "demand recovery faster than supply recovery", which will strongly support prices.
Price Forecast: In the short term, after the resumption of production in March, with the rapid increase in inquiries and transactions, electrolytic manganese prices are expected to fluctuate and rebound relying on the 17,000 yuan/ton mark. The rebound range will depend on the downstream stockpiling intensity and the willingness of leading enterprises to maintain prices; in the medium and long term, the dual effects of continuous growth in new energy demand and industry production capacity regulation will promote the market to gradually get out of the adjustment cycle and return to a rational operation range.
Overall, the 2026 Spring Festival holiday has become a "bottoming period" for the electrolytic manganese market. The stable prices and contracted output have laid the foundation for the post-holiday recovery. March, as a key node for industry resumption and demand release, will become the core window period determining the market trend in the first quarter, and the market focus is expected to gradually move up.
