Supply Sufficient and Demand Weak, Aluminum Fluoride Market Operates Steadily [SMM Fluoride Salt Weekly Review]

SMM February 12 News:

This week, domestic aluminum fluoride enterprises focused on order deliveries, with aluminum fluoride prices largely stable. The SMM aluminum fluoride price closed at 10,480-10,750 yuan/mt; cryolite prices remained stable, with the SMM cryolite quote at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt.

Raw material side: Prices of core raw materials for aluminum fluoride were largely stable. Specifically, delivery-to-factory prices for 97% fluorite powder were mainly steady, currently concentrated in the range of 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt. Supply side, conventional shutdowns occurred in north China due to low temperatures and the Chinese New Year holiday, leading to a decline in market supply; coupled with normalized environmental protection and safety supervision, operations at small and medium-sized mines were unstable. Imports were mainly medium and low grade, with limited supplementation of high-grade sources, prolonging structural tightness. Although the supply side contracted, social inventory remained high and shipments were sluggish, exerting some downward pressure on prices. Demand side performance was weak, with operating rates in the core downstream hydrofluoric acid industry remaining low, resulting in weak digestion capacity for fluorite powder and difficulty forming strong momentum. Market transactions were currently sluggish, and prices saw no major adjustments. Aluminum hydroxide prices stopped falling and stabilized, with the SMM weighted average price reported at 1,611 yuan/mt, flat MoM. The sulphuric acid market maintained a fluctuating and consolidating trend at highs, providing some support for aluminum fluoride costs. Overall, rigid cost support from the aluminum fluoride raw material side remains.

Supply-demand side: In terms of supply, lower raw material prices effectively alleviated some cost pressure for enterprises, but due to strict constraints from environmental protection and energy consumption policies, dual restrictions from raw material costs and profit margins, as well as impacts from maintenance and production cuts at some enterprises, industry supply declined. On the demand side, operating aluminum capacity remained basically stable, providing solid rigid demand support for aluminum fluoride, but enterprises maintained a cautious procurement attitude, mainly restocking based on demand.

Brief Review: Recently, raw materials such as fluorite and sulphuric acid on the cost side operated largely steadily, still providing rigid support for aluminum fluoride prices. The supply side has ample spot cargo, and coupled with expectations of production resumptions after the holiday, market supply is expected to further release; the demand side saw only a slight recovery relying on rigid restocking by aluminum enterprises, with insufficient incremental support. Under the interplay of multiple factors, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Subsequent attention should remain on dynamic changes in raw material costs and marginal adjustments in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.