【SMM Baja】Tenggat CBAM UE Picu Gelombang Proyek Baja DRI Hidrogen Hijau Menjelang Peluncuran 2026

Tabel berikut menunjukkan pergerakan logam besi dan non-besi di SHFE dan DCE pada 6 November 2026

[SMM Analysis] Futures Drive Finished Steel and Raw Material Prices Up; Stainless Steel Raw Materials Diverge While Profits Hold Steady This week, stainless steel finished products and various raw materials rose in tandem, with steel mill profits remaining generally stable. Based on 304 cold-rolled calculations, the profit margin from current raw material accounting recovered to 2.47%, while the profit margin from inventory raw material accounting stood at 2.88%. The nickel pig iron segment halted losses and strengthened this week. Driven by higher SS futures, stainless steel finished product prices rose and steel mill profit margins expanded, boosting market sentiment for NPI and increasing inquiries. Coupled with market talk that Indonesia's nickel ore quotas may be further tightened next year, upstream smelters and traders adopted a hold-back-from-selling stance, pushing high-grade NPI prices higher. As of Friday, the delivered duty-paid price of Indonesian high-grade NPI with 10-12% nickel content in China rose by 9.5 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap also halted losses and strengthened. The rise in SS futures lifted finished products and high-grade NPI, steel mills raised their scrap procurement prices, and scrap quotes followed higher. However, this round of gains was driven more by expectations in futures, while the reverse invoicing policy continued to constrain goods circulation. Actual procurement volumes at steel mills remained limited, and market trading stayed sluggish. The cost advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI provided bottom support, but end-use demand has yet to show substantial improvement, and prices are likely to consolidate on a strong note in the short term. As of Friday, the tax-exclusive price of mainstream 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 450 yuan/mt. Chrome-related raw materials diverged from nickel-related materials and scrap, extending their weak downward trend. South African ferrochrome enterprises gradually resumed production, and with China's ferrochrome market already in oversupply, destocking pressure is expected to increase further going forward. Meanwhile, chrome ore prices pulled back, and ferrochrome costs...

Secara mingguan, wire rod bertahan di USD 500/mt, slab di USD 478/mt, dan HRC di USD 515/mt FOB, sementara billet persegi turun ke USD 468/mt (ex-works) dari USD 470/mt. HRC Indonesia berada di sekitar USD 533/mt CFR Surabaya dan USD 532-535/mt CFR Vietnam, naik dari USD 530-533/mt minggu lalu. Harga domestik sebagian besar datar: wire rod sekitar IDR 11.000/kg, rebar IDR 10.000-10.200/kg, dan GI IDR 15.000-15.500/kg, sementara HRC melandai ke IDR 9.900-10.000/kg karena pabrik memangkas harga untuk menutup transaksi. Billet turun karena pabrik mendekati target pembeli, sementara penjual asal Tiongkok tidak menunjukkan niat untuk memangkas lebih lanjut. Di Vietnam, penawaran USD yang lebih tinggi dari Formosa Ha Tinh (USD 548-561/mt CIF) dan Hoa Phat (USD 559-560/mt CIF) mendorong pembeli beralih ke impor, meskipun pengiriman Februari dari Indonesia menjadi kelemahan dibandingkan pengiriman Desember-Januari dari Formosa.