【SMM Steel】European Steel Users May Face Annual Costs of EUR 5-9 Billion Under New Measures

This week, ferrous metals edged higher before extending their pullback, with coking coal posting the largest decline. At the beginning of the week, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice on launching a three-year campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and news that the U.S. and Iran were to sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th improved market sentiment, lifting all ferrous metals. In the latter half of the week, expectations for an eighth round of coke price hikes materialized in the futures market. However, as steel mill profits narrowed further and spot coke had largely priced in the eighth increase, further upside room was limited. Combined with emerging expectations of peak hot metal output, futures began to correct and cost support weakened. Meanwhile, May macro data came in below expectations, dragging the entire ferrous metals complex lower...

[Silicon metal futures fluctuate narrowly, spot market largely stable]: Downstream and trader procurement sentiment is cautious, with some users digesting previous low-price inventories. Clients outside China have purchase price expectations lower than current prices, and sentiment for new orders in the market is sluggish. Some users expect to purchase via futures point pricing at around 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt. On the supply side, the increase in operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the rainy season is already within expectations, with few new variables in the market. As variables on both supply and demand sides are highly deterministic in the short term, market sentiment in the buyer-seller tug-of-war appears rational. The silicon metal price center is expected to remain near the low end of the range in the near term.

SMM News Flash:  [Steel Billet] Export billet offers fell by 3-4USD/tonne today to around $470/mt. Inquiries from outside China decreased, orders declined, and the actual negotiation margin for transactions was around 5USD/tonne. Market intelligence indicated that Iran recently took orders for billets, offering significant price advantages, which diverted some Middle Eastern orders to Iran. Additionally, billet export prices from some neighboring countries were lower than those in China, so overseas buyers remained cautious in the short term, which would limit export transactions. [Rebar] Rebar export FOB offers edged down by 2USD/tonne today, tracking futures. According to traders, market sentiment was subdued and inquiries were mediocre. Offers for southern China resources were maintained at 520-525USD/tonne, which were relatively high. [HRC] HRC export prices fell by 1-2USD/tonne day-on-day today, with transaction prices at 494-503USD/tonne. Based on current inquiries, market offers remained mostly above 500USD/tonne, with shipment periods from July to August. Some overseas buyers made inquiries, but their target prices were more than 5USD/tonne below offers.