[SMM Chromium Weekly Review] Chromium Prices Continue to Decline, Limited Inquiries and Difficult Shipments

On November 7, 2025, the ex-factory price for high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,100-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, it was 8,150-8,250 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the quotation was 8,250-8,350 yuan/mt (50% metal content), down 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day; for imported ferrochrome, South African high-carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 8,100-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); Kazakhstan high-carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 9,100-9,250 yuan/mt (50% metal content), down 75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day.

This week, the ferrochrome market continued its weak performance from last month. Downstream buyers were cautious, leading to difficulties in retail sales for ferrochrome producers with limited transactions. Demand side, officially entering the off-season, the stainless steel market saw widespread pessimism, with sluggish inquiries and deals. Under the losses, production plans were adjusted, significantly impacting the procurement demand for ferrochrome and dampening market participants' confidence. Supply side, imported ferrochrome remained low, with South Africa's September high-carbon ferrochrome exports totaling 87,600 mt, of which direct exports to China were 15,400 mt, down 58.3% MoM and 87.3% YoY. The domestic ferrochrome market, driven by this, maintained active production where profitable, keeping ferrochrome production at a high level. This alleviated the previous supply shortage, exerting some downward pressure on prices. Additionally, after three rounds of increases, coke costs rose slightly, but the continuous decline in chrome ore prices had a more significant impact, causing the immediate smelting cost for ferrochrome to slowly decrease, weakening the support for prices. Overall, there were many bearish expectations, and the ferrochrome market was expected to remain weak in the short term.

Raw material side, on November 6, 2025, spot quotations for 40-42% South African powder at Tianjin Port were 54.5-55 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore was 48.5-49.5 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was 55-56 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore was 56.5-58 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 58.5-60 yuan/mtu, and 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate ore was 65-66 yuan/mtu, unchanged MoM from the previous trading day; futures, 40-42% South African powder was offered at $279-282/mt; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was offered at $340-350/mt, also unchanged MoM from the previous trading day.

This week, the chrome ore market did not see any effective improvement, with spot prices continuing to fall and some softening in overseas market prices, making it difficult for high-priced futures to trade. Weakness in the stainless steel market led to production cuts, suppressing ferrochrome prices and indirectly affecting the confidence in the chrome ore market. Meanwhile, the total inventory of chrome ore at ports this week was 3.4829 million mt, up 4.78% MoM, increasing the holding pressure on traders. In addition, South Africa's chrome ore exports hit a record high of 2.3418 million mt in September, and chrome ore supply is expected to continue increasing in the later period, with the surplus issue gradually becoming more prominent. Under these circumstances, on the demand side, ferrochrome producers have relatively sufficient raw material inventory, often supplemented by futures, so there are no immediate plans for concentrated purchases, with inquiries mainly driven by rigid demand. At the same time, noting the downward trend in chrome ore offers, ferrochrome producers have counteroffered to drive down prices to below 54 yuan/mtu. However, as spot prices gradually approach the cost line, further price reductions are difficult, and the market is currently dominated by a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. On the futures side, ferrochrome producers maintain certain profitability with no clear production cut plans for now. Stable ferrochrome production continues to provide some demand support for chrome ore, with offers for 40-42% South African fine ore from overseas major mines holding steady at $282/mt. While this offers some support to the chrome ore market, high-priced futures transactions remain challenging, and offers from other small and medium-sized miners have softened. Market expectations are predominantly pessimistic, with a general view that chrome ore prices may drop slightly, as participants await price guidance from December steel tenders amid the ongoing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. In the short term, the chrome ore market is expected to remain in the doldrums.