Harga Tembaga Naik Sementara Keinginan Pembelian Hilir Melemah, Premi Spot Berfluktuasi dan Menurun [Ulasan Mingguan Pasar Spot Katoda Tembaga SMM Tiongkok Selatan]

Sep 4, 2025

Guangdong Region: WoW, premiums and discounts in the region showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly affected by rising copper prices and inventory. Downstream enterprises had weak purchasing enthusiasm, forcing suppliers to lower prices for shipments. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt WoW; standard-quality copper was quoted at parity, down 40 yuan/mt WoW; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt WoW. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper between Shanghai and Guangdong was 60 yuan/mt (Shanghai higher), which was relatively small, leaving no room for cross-region shipments. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses stood at 25,200 mt, up 1,800 mt WoW, while warrants totaled 9,800 mt, down 1,500 mt WoW. Specifically: WoW, warehouse arrivals reached 12,600 mt/week, up 2,300 mt/week but below the annual average (14,000 mt/week). The increase mainly came from imported copper, while domestic copper supply saw limited growth. Outflows from warehouses were 10,800 mt/week, down 3,500 mt/week WoW, significantly below the annual average (14,200 mt/week). The primary reason was downstream enterprises' reluctance to rush to buy amid continuous copper price rises.

Looking ahead to next week, we understand that arrivals of imported copper will be limited. However, due to weak consumption and low spot premiums, domestic copper shipments to warehouses are expected to increase for convenient delivery, with total supply likely slightly higher than this week. If copper prices do not pull back significantly, downstream consumption is expected to remain low. Therefore, we anticipate a scenario of increasing supply and weak consumption next week, with weekly inventory likely to increase slightly and spot premiums remaining low.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)