Breaking: Trump Says He Will Raise Tariffs on Imported Steel to 50%! Negative News Hits, Oil Prices Plummet! When Will Glass Futures Hit Bottom

Trump says he will raise tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%

According to CCTV News, on May 30 local time, US President Trump stated that tariffs on imported steel would be raised from 25% to 50%.

The US White House issued an announcement on social media on the same day, stating that to further protect the US steel industry from foreign and unfair competition, starting next week, tariffs on imported steel in the US would be raised from 25% to 50%.

On February 10 local time, Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported into the US. On March 12, the measure to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported into the US officially took effect.

In addition, Trump stated that US automakers, including Tesla, must produce entire vehicles and all parts in the US, rather than abroad.

Trump expressed that he was troubled by the fact that automakers previously produced parts in Canada, Mexico, and European countries, but in the coming year, these automakers "must produce entire vehicles in the US."

OPEC+ may increase oil production more than expected in July

On the evening of May 30, Reuters reported that sources said OPEC+ might discuss increasing oil production in July at its meeting on Saturday, with the increase potentially exceeding market expectations of 411,000 barrels per day.

The report stated that despite the additional supply weighing on oil prices, OPEC+ member countries have been rapidly increasing production. Part of the intention of the organization's leading countries, Saudi Arabia and Russia, in this move is to punish member countries that have overproduced and regain market share. Some sources indicated that Kazakhstan's statement on Thursday that it would not cut production sparked debate within OPEC+, a factor that might tilt Saturday's meeting towards a larger production increase.

Russia and Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Friday.

Falling below the 1,000 yuan/mt mark! When will glass futures hit bottom?

Recently, spot prices of glass have continued to decline, and futures prices have also continued to weaken. Yesterday, the most-traded glass futures contract fell below the 1,000 yuan/mt mark, dropping to a low of 971 yuan/mt.

"Domestic demand for float glass has been weak this week, and prices have continued to fall," said Wei Chaoming, an analyst at Founder Securities Futures. He noted that two float glass production lines commenced operations this week, coupled with news of production resumption plans from some major manufacturers, leading to a growing wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

In his view, although the spot market performed poorly, futures prices fluctuated due to environmental protection news from Hubei. On Wednesday, the most-traded glass futures contract rebounded to 1,050 yuan/mt at one point. As the rainy season approaches, demand remains in the doldrums, compounded by the aforementioned production resumption news, futures prices pulled back rapidly, with the most-traded contract falling below the 1,000 yuan/mt threshold, hitting a new low for the period. Fundamentally, the movement of futures prices was within market expectations.

According to Jialu Shou, an analyst at Nanhua Futures, the spot market has been weak recently, with poor production and sales performance. Spot prices in Hubei continued to decline, once dropping to 1,010 yuan/mt, while outbound prices even fell below 1,000 yuan/mt. The spot price correction confirmed prior market expectations. Additionally, glass producers' inventories remain high, and downstream enterprises show low enthusiasm for restocking.

Shou noted that from January to May 2025, glass apparent demand fell 10% YoY, below market expectations. Based on the current apparent demand trend, daily melting capacity of float glass would need to drop to 154,000 mt to achieve supply-demand balance in H2. Further reductions would be required to destock during the off-season.

"The main pressure facing the glass market currently is weak demand and subdued market expectations. This has led to a supply-demand mismatch even with low daily melting capacity," Shou said. The market expects low prices to push glass producers into a new round of maintenance. Fundamental improvements later would depend on either capacity exits or demand recovery, with the former being more likely.

Peng Hu, senior energy and chemical analyst at China Securities Futures, agreed: "Whether fundamentals improve later hinges on whether supply declines following price drops. Before the September-October peak season in H2, if glass supply decreases, high inventory pressure at enterprises could ease."

Futures Daily learned from interviews that glass prices are already at relatively low levels, with production lines fueled by natural gas and petroleum coke operating at a loss, while those using coal gas still have profit margins.

"From a valuation perspective, glass prices still have about 100 yuan/mt of downside room before the entire industry chain incurs losses," Shou said. Currently, no unexpected maintenance has occurred on the supply side, with some production lines still starting up, providing support for shorts to further depress glass prices. The undervalued state of glass prices will be hard to reverse in the short term.

Chaoming Wei stated that glass price trends reflect profound changes in the industry environment. Under supply-demand mismatch conditions, glass prices will remain in the doldrums over the medium and long term."In the glass industry, cold repairs and production resumptions coexist. From the perspective of the industry's inventory levels, the maintenance of a small number of production lines is unlikely to have a fundamental impact on the supply-demand pattern of the industry." He believes that the glass industry has sufficient potential supply capability, and if industry profits improve, it will incentivize more production lines currently under maintenance to resume production.

In Shou Jialu's view, the capacity exit situation on the supply side in the later period will determine the trend of glass prices. "From the perspective of trading logic, the longer the low glass prices persist, the stronger the market's expectations will be for industry shutdowns, maintenance, and capacity exits," she said.

"Currently, after the most-traded glass futures contract fell below the 1,000 yuan/mt integer threshold, there is no clear support level in the short term," said Wei Chaoming. Compared with the most-traded contract, the current prices of raw materials for glass production, such as coal and soda ash, have all pulled back significantly, indicating that there is still downside room for glass prices.

However, Hu Peng believes that the downside room for glass futures prices is relatively limited. He predicts that in extreme cases, glass futures prices may dip to 900 yuan/mt. In his view, with the continuous decline in glass prices, the glass industry may enter a new round of structural adjustment.