Sentimen Pasar Melemah, Harga Bijih Besi Turun ke Level Terendah Sejak Maret [Komentar SMM]

The most-traded HRC contract fluctuated today, closing at 3,279 with a slight intraday decline of 0.3%. This week, cold-rolled and hot-rolled prices continued to weaken, and overall transaction volumes remained low. In terms of supply, the impact from mill line maintenance decreased WoW, leading to a slight increase in total HRC production. On the demand side, apparent demand dropped MoM. Regarding inventory, according to SMM statistics, HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) reached 4.3757 million mt, up 84,500 mt or 1.97% WoW, and up 43.10% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. By region, all markets saw inventory buildup WoW, with the Northeast market recording a relatively large buildup. Cost side, the ninth round of coke price increases was implemented this week. Influenced by raw material market news, costs showed a pattern of strength early on and weakness later. Looking ahead, although the market has initiated a tenth round of coke price hikes, hot metal output has slowly pulled back from its peak, and cost support is expected to remain flat compared to earlier estimates. From the HRC supply-demand perspective, the current imbalance continues to accumulate. Amid off-season demand, inventory pressure is expected to persist and weigh on prices. Combined with remaining cost-side support, downside room is relatively small. HRC prices are likely to show a bottom-consolidation pattern next week, with the most-traded HRC contract moving in the 3,250–3,330 range.

[Turki] Permintaan domestik dan ekspor baja tulangan Turki tetap lemah sepanjang pekan ini, menekan harga ekspornya ke 575 USD/ton FOB, terutama akibat penurunan stok pabrik yang terus berlanjut dan minimnya pesanan beli yang pasti, sementara penawaran HRC diturunkan menjadi 585 USD/ton FOB. Pasar domestik masih lesu dengan sedikit peluang pemulihan permintaan yang signifikan pada musim panas ini. Lambatnya pemulihan permintaan konstruksi membuat pabrik besar menyimpan stok baja tulangan melimpah untuk pengiriman, sedangkan pedagang enggan menambah stok karena arus kas lemah dan biaya pinjaman tinggi.