Domestic Alumina Prices Slightly Increase While Overseas Prices Decline; Alumina Export Window May Gradually Close [SMM Analysis]

Published: Feb 21, 2025 15:30

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SMM, February 21: In the latter part of this week, overseas alumina transaction prices continued to decline, while domestic spot alumina prices in northern China rebounded slightly, and the alumina export window may gradually close. On February 20, 30,000 mt of alumina was transacted in Western Australia at a transaction price of $485/mt FOB. On February 21, 10,000 mt of spot alumina was transacted in Henan at a transaction price of 3,400 yuan/mt; 3,000 mt of spot alumina was transacted in Shandong at a transaction price of 3,415 yuan/mt; and 2,000 mt of spot alumina was transacted in Guangxi at a transaction price of 3,400 yuan/mt. Based on an alumina price of approximately 3,400 yuan/mt, assuming port and miscellaneous fees, including freight, total around 200 yuan/mt, the domestic FOB price for alumina at export ports is estimated to be around 3,600 yuan/mt, equivalent to approximately $495/mt, which is higher than the latest transaction price of $485/mt for Western Australian alumina. The export window may gradually close.

SMM, December 21:

In the analysis on February 14, we mentioned that based on the domestic northern spot alumina transaction price of 3,300 yuan/mt, assuming transportation and port miscellaneous fees totaling around 200 yuan/mt, the domestic alumina export FOB price in RMB was approximately 3,500 yuan/mt, equivalent to about $480/mt, which is lower than the recent FOB transaction price of Western Australian alumina. The domestic export window was open.

This week, two alumina transactions in northern Shandong also verified that the alumina export window was open. From Monday to Tuesday this week, two alumina transactions were concluded in Shandong, with one transaction volume of 30,000 mt at a transaction price of 3,340 yuan/mt, and another transaction volume of 54,000 mt at a transaction price of 3,350 yuan/mt. It is understood that the alumina from these two transactions is expected to be ultimately exported overseas. In the short term, the previously transacted alumina for export may gradually be shipped from ports, and China's alumina export volume is expected to increase in the next 2-3 months.

However, in the latter part of this week, overseas alumina transaction prices fell again, while domestic northern spot alumina prices rebounded slightly, and the alumina export window may gradually close. On February 20, 30,000 mt of Western Australian alumina was transacted at a price of $485/mt FOB. On February 21, 10,000 mt of spot alumina was transacted in Henan at a price of 3,400 yuan/mt; 3,000 mt of spot alumina was transacted in Shandong at a price of 3,415 yuan/mt; and 2,000 mt of spot alumina was transacted in Guangxi at a price of 3,400 yuan/mt. Based on an alumina price of around 3,400 yuan/mt and assuming transportation and port miscellaneous fees totaling around 200 yuan/mt, the domestic alumina export FOB price in RMB was approximately 3,600 yuan/mt, equivalent to about $495/mt, which is higher than the latest Western Australian alumina transaction price of $485/mt. The export window may gradually close.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)

Data source: SMM Click on the SMM industry database for more information

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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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