In December, Indonesia's total stainless steel exports decreased by approximately 7.18% MoM, with mixed performance in exports to major global consumer countries [SMM Analysis].

    In December 2024, Indonesia exported approximately 1.02 million mt of stainless steel to China, down by about 437,000 mt MoM, representing a MoM decrease of around 30.05% and a YoY decline of approximately 46.56%.

      By country, among the top ten countries and regions importing from Indonesia in December, the total import volumes varied. Overall, the total stainless steel export volume fell below 400,000 mt to 385,700 mt, down by about 29,800 mt MoM. Additionally, the total export volume to the top ten countries accounted for 99.96% of the monthly export volume, up by 0.01 percentage points MoM. In December, the domestic stainless steel market entered the traditional off-season, with some inventory buildup in the social inventory. Moreover, weak consumption led to continuous inventory buildup in futures warehouse warrants, further constraining the upward recovery momentum of stainless steel. Stainless steel spot prices entered a downward trajectory, hitting a multi-year low. Meanwhile, weak domestic demand caused a significant decline in the total stainless steel imports from Indonesia in December. From the raw material side, the weak stainless steel prices in December continued to negatively impact the raw material side, with high-grade NPI prices also experiencing a continuous decline. However, with the concentrated release of Indonesian nickel ore, prices pulled back, and the profitability of high-grade NPI at major smelters improved. Major production areas adjusted production rhythms to reduce stainless steel output, thereby increasing the total exportable volume of high-grade NPI. As a result, the overall exportable stainless steel volume declined. From other countries, growth in December was mainly concentrated in India, Turkey, Thailand, and South Korea. India saw the most significant growth, with the total stainless steel imports from Indonesia increasing by about 87,900 mt MoM. India's manufacturing PMI in December stood at 56.4, remaining in the expansion territory. India is still in the early stages of manufacturing development and heavily relies on stainless steel from China and Indonesia. The YoY increases in stainless steel imports from Indonesia in December were approximately 183.93% for India, 44.52% for Turkey, 38.26% for Thailand, and 27.78% for South Korea.

      By product type, in December, stainless steel scrap export volume was about 4,200 mt, down by approximately 12.74% MoM and up by about 19.73% YoY; stainless steel billet export volume was about 41,400 mt, down by approximately 33.18% MoM and 75.3% YoY; stainless steel hot-rolled export volume was about 244,200 mt, up by approximately 4.92% MoM and 90.47% YoY; stainless steel cold-rolled export volume was about 95,300 mt, down by approximately 17.21% MoM and up by 5.4% YoY; stainless steel wire rod export volume was about 38.22 mt, up by approximately 1,017.54% MoM and 762.75% YoY.

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