Futures market: Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2411 contract opened at 20,355 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,530 yuan/mt, a low of 20,330 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,480 yuan/mt, up 125 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.61%. LME aluminum on the previous trading day opened at $2,618/mt, with a high of $2,659/mt, a low of $2,514/mt, and closed at $2,633/mt, up $11.5/mt, an increase of 0.44%.
Summary: On the macro front, following the US Fed's interest rate cut, the domestic central bank has announced four major monetary policies, including cutting interest rate, lowering the reserve requirement ratio, and reducing the mortgage rate on existing home loans, indicating the government's recognition of the urgency to eliminate deflation risks and support economic growth, creating favorable macro environment. On the fundamentals, the domestic aluminum market supply has slightly increased. With the National Day holiday approaching, considering the downstream production schedule during the holiday, there is an expectation of a temporary weakening in domestic downstream consumption. After the holiday, domestic aluminum social inventory may slightly accumulate. However, in the medium and long term, considering the downstream production schedule, October consumption remains in the industry peak season, with demand primarily stable. Overall, given the short-term favorable macro atmosphere and stable fundamentals, the aluminum market is expected to hover at highs in the short term.
