Hot-Rolled Coil Futures Narrow Decline Amid Steel Export Drop and Inventory Pressures

This week, ferrous metals diverged, with coking coal and coke extending their strength, iron ore making some concessions, and finished steel moving sideways. Early in the week, rumors about coal mine safety inspections continued to swirl, and expectations of supply tightness intensified, driving coking coal to its daily limit up. Against weak supply-demand fundamentals, iron ore took a path of conceding to coking coal and coke, while finished steel edged higher in a narrow range; later in the week, data on the five major steel products were released, with HRC inventory destocking continuing, the off-season effect on construction steel demand emerging, inventory destocking narrowing, and overall inventory pressure for finished steel also beginning to slowly accumulate......

[HRC] HRC export prices remained stable day on day today, with transaction prices at 496-504 USD/tonne. A major mill in north China reported that its transaction price fell by more than 5-10 USD/tonne WoW this week, and its prices remained higher than other resources, at around 515 USD/tonne. The presence of tax-exclusive prices in the market has made it more difficult for some regular traders to close deals. It is learned that tax-exclusive prices are even 10 USD/tonne lower than the market’s lowest tax-inclusive prices. [Rebar] Rebar export FOB quotations remained stable today, with transaction prices mostly concentrated at 492-495 USD/tonne. Shipments are mostly scheduled for August, and some steel mills have full order books, with deliveries already scheduled from September to October. According to feedback from some market traders, recent inquiries for wire rod have been moderate, overseas buyers remain cautious and on the sidelines, and their psychological price levels are generally lower than current offers. [Steel Billet] The export transaction price for steel billet was 473-475 USD/tonne today, holding steady day on day. Recently, offers from steel mills in north China were at around 478 USD/tonne, but it is reported that deals cannot be reached for high-priced resources. Currently, most shipments are scheduled for August, with a few in September. It is learned that a few mills in east China have maintenance plans in June and will continue to control their order intake in the short term. In addition, some mills in north China have recently taken new rebar orders, so they are temporarily reducing the volume of steel billet available for ordering.