SMM Analysis On China July Lithium Carbonate Production And August Forecast

According to SMM statistics, the total domestic production of lithium carbonate in July (including recycling) was 64,960 mt, down 1.94% MoM, up 43.36% YoY. From January to July, the cumulative domestic production of lithium carbonate was 363,424 mt, up 46.10% YoY. By raw material, the total production of lithium carbonate from spodumene in July was 30,300 mt, up 1.7% MoM. Most spodumene-based lithium salt plants maintained a high and stable operating rate in July. However, some non-integrated spodumene-based lithium salt plants saw a decline in production due to weak downstream demand and the risk of losses. Meanwhile, some leading lithium salt plants completed maintenance and technical upgrades in July, resulting in increased production. Overall, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increased by 1.7% MoM in July. The total production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite in July was 15,600 mt, down 12.3% MoM. Although some non-integrated lepidolite-based lithium salt plants experienced losses earlier, they did not significantly reduce production in June due to cash flow considerations. However, continued price declines made it difficult for these plants to sell their products, leading to production cuts. As a result, the production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite decreased by 12.3% MoM in July. The total production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes in July was 13,300 mt, up 2.5% MoM. July remained a peak production period for salt lake-based lithium salt plants, with a high operating rate. Additionally, new lithium salt plants started production in early July, contributing to the total production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes. The total production of recycled lithium carbonate in July was 5,760 mt, up 1.1% MoM. The high price of recycled scrap led many recycling plants to reduce or halt production. However, some recycling plants saw an increase in production due to stable outsourcing orders and the need to deliver futures contract in July. Overall, the total production of recycled lithium carbonate increased slightly.

In August, the risk of losses is expected to continue affecting some lithium salt plants, leading to anticipated production cuts. Except for salt lake-based lithium salt plants, which are expected to maintain a stable operating rate, production from other raw material sources is likely to be impacted. The total domestic production of lithium carbonate in August is expected to be 63,110 mt, down 2.8% MoM.

Currently, downstream material plants have increased their inquiries, but the expected transaction prices are close to market prices, which still differ from the psychological expectations of most lithium salt plants. Additionally, material plants' long-term contracts and customer supplies are sufficient for daily production, so there is no urgent need for restocking, and transaction activities have not significantly increased. On the supply side, lithium salt plants continue to have a firm stance on pricing, but generally hold a bearish outlook for the future, leading to slight price reductions. Some lithium salt plants face the risk of losses and have plans to reduce production. In contrast, material plants' production schedules for August have slightly increased. It is expected that the domestic supply surplus of lithium carbonate may slightly ease, but prices are likely to remain weak.