June Refined Nickel Customs Clearance Volume Significantly Declined, July Exports Are Expected to Decrease MoM [SMM Analysis]

According to the customs statistics, in June 2024, China's imports of refined nickel (including unwrought non-alloy nickel with a nickel content of ≥99.99% and cobalt ≤0.005%, other unwrought non-alloy nickel and unwrought nickel alloy) were 7,742 mt, down 5.75% MoM and 16.36% YoY. Imports of other unwrought non-alloy nickel were 5,810 mt, down 43.01% YoY. Additionally, imports of non-alloy nickel powder and flake powder (HS code: 75040010) in June were 281.62 mt, down 62.31% YoY. As for nickel briquette, imports in June were 596.62 mt, down 55% YoY. The main sources of refined nickel imports in June were Russia, Indonesia, Japan, Norway, and Canada.

June recorded a continued net exports of refined nickel. During June, the imports of refined nickel slightly decreased compared to May but fell significantly compared to the same period last year. The majority of nickel plate imports throughout the year were from Russia, and long-term contracts for Russian nickel can be signed using a mixed pricing model in yuan, making them less affected by the SHFE/LME nickel price ratio. Therefore, the quantity under long-term contracts stayed stable. The increase in domestic refined nickel exports in June was mainly due to the continued price spread between domestic and overseas nickel, which stayed around 10,000 yuan, allowing smelters with export licenses to increase nickel plate exports. In July, both domestic and overseas nickel futures prices fell, with overseas prices weaker than domestic ones, leading to a continued narrowing of the price spread and squeezing export profits. Therefore, it is expected that the customs clearance volume of refined nickel will continue to increase MoM in July, while exports will decrease.