SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Aug 6)

Market: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2409 contract opened at 18,785 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 18,920 yuan/mt and a low of 18,755 yuan/mt, and closed at 18,885 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.05%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,261/mt, reached a high of $2,283/mt, a low of $2,227/mt, and closed at $2,262/mt, down $1/mt, a decrease of 0.04%.

Summary: On the macro front, the Chinese government continues to boost the domestic economy, the expectation of a US Fed rate cut is growing, and regional conflict situations are escalating, providing upward momentum for aluminium prices. However, yesterday's "Black Monday" for global assets has introduced uncertainty to the macro front. On the fundamentals side, aluminium supply is increasing while demand remains sluggish. In July, aluminium production is expected to reach around 3.68 million mt, and social inventory is at a high level for the same period, putting pressure on aluminium prices. In the short term, both macro and fundamental factors are mixed, and aluminium prices are expected to fluctuate widely.