SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Aug 1)

Market: The most-traded SHFE 2409 aluminum contract opened at 19,295 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 19,355 yuan/mt and a low of 19,205 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,310 yuan/mt, up 175 yuan/mt, or 0.91%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,234.5/mt, reached a high of $2,324.5/mt and a low of $2,229.5/mt, and closed at $2,315/mt, up $77/mt, or 3.44%.

Summary: The expectation of a US Fed rate cut together with escalating regional conflicts drove aluminum prices higher in the night session. However, on the fundamentals side, aluminum still shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with social inventories at a high level for the same period. In the short term, both macro and fundamental factors are mixed, and aluminum prices may experience wide fluctuations.