SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (July 11)

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2408 aluminum contract opened at 20,140 yuan/mt, reached a high of 20,265 yuan/mt, a low of 20,140 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,170 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.35%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,495.5/mt, reached a high of $2,501.5/mt, a low of $2,476.5/mt, and closed at $2,478/mt, down $19/mt from the previous trading day's closing price, a decrease of 0.76%.

Summary: On the macro front, US inflation pressure decreased, and the US Fed's rate cut expectations strengthened. On the fundamentals, domestic aluminum production is increasing, with some capacity still awaiting resumption. Downstream aluminum processing and end-user demand have entered the off-season, with demand in some sectors being impacted, leading to a continuous decline in the operating rate of the aluminum processing industry and inventory growth in social stocks. The aluminum market currently lacks driving factors, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. However, attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment that may cause aluminum price fluctuations.