High-Carbon Ferrochrome Supply Surged but Prices Rose, Increasing Supply-Demand Imbalance Risk [SMM Analysis]

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Cost Push Drives Magnesium Prices Up, Weak Demand Limits Gains] This week, mainstream quotations for 99.90% magnesium ingot in major production areas stood at 16,050-16,150 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt WoW, with FOB prices at $2,280-2,380/mt and an average of $2,330/mt. Magnesium ingot prices shot up during the week, driven by rising coal and ferrosilicon costs, coupled with some restocking at higher prices in foreign trade. However, the overall market remained characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with sluggish transactions at high prices and signs of a pullback emerging in the latter part of the week. Overseas demand has not shown any substantial recovery, with market activity dominated by tentative inquiries, limited actual order volumes, and evident buyer pressure for lower prices, keeping trading sluggish. Downstream magnesium powder and magnesium alloy prices followed the cost-driven increase in magnesium ingot, but end-use demand for magnesium powder remained weak, with some enterprises cutting production or suspending operations, exports constrained, and inventory levels rising. Spot inventory of magnesium alloy was ample, competition among peers was intense, and die-casting enterprises faced insufficient orders and declining operating rates, keeping processing fees under pressure. In the short term, cost support and weak demand are locked in a tug-of-war, and the upward momentum in magnesium prices is losing steam, with the market likely to return to consolidation. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the release of domestic and overseas orders.

[Dukungan biaya tidak cukup untuk mengimbangi permintaan yang lemah; pasar ingot magnesium berubah lesu di bawah tekanan] Pusat transaksi ingot magnesium China bergerak menuju 16.000 yuan/mt hari ini, dengan kuotasi FOB bertahan stabil di $2.280-2.380/mt. Dipengaruhi oleh transaksi harga tinggi yang lesu dan tindak lanjut permintaan domestik dan luar negeri yang tidak memadai, pasar bergeser dari menahan harga tetap menjadi lesu di bawah tekanan, dan kemungkinan akan berkonsolidasi dengan nada lesu dalam jangka pendek.

【SMM Kilas Magnesium】Pekan ini, inventaris sosial magnesium ingot meningkat 2,19% dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya, menunjukkan pola akumulasi yang berkelanjutan. Didukung oleh biaya, harga magnesium ingot domestik terus naik pekan ini. Didorong oleh mentalitas "beli saat harga naik dan tidak beli saat harga turun" serta sebagian permintaan dokumen pengiriman, para pedagang melakukan sedikit penimbunan dan pembelian lanjutan. Namun, setelah lonjakan harga, transaksi pasar melemah secara signifikan, dan kekhawatiran harga tinggi di kalangan hilir semakin menonjol. Saat ini, belum ada pemulihan substansial pada permintaan terminal di dalam dan luar negeri. Sebagian pedagang menyimpan barang yang dibeli di gudang pelabuhan untuk dokumen pengiriman dan mengantisipasi fluktuasi pasar, sementara sebagian besar pedagang memilih untuk tetap menunggu. Meskipun ada dukungan kuat dari sisi biaya dan ekspektasi kenaikan harga di pasar, keinginan untuk melakukan pembelian baru tetap terbatas. Berbagai faktor secara bersama-sama menyebabkan sedikit akumulasi inventaris sosial pekan ini.