SMM Weekly Comment: Stable Ammonium Phosphate Prices, Continued Decline in Lithium Iron Phosphate, and Cost Stabilization for Iron Phosphate

Today, SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices edged down from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate 2701 contract opened higher at 156,000 yuan/mt today, then moved sideways above the average price line in early trading, reaching an intraday high of 158,000 yuan/mt. Around midday, bears stepped up selling pressure, sending prices off a cliff and below the average price line. In the afternoon, prices consolidated on a weak note at lows; despite a brief rebound, they failed to break above the average price line, hitting a low of 149,500 yuan/mt. Near the close, prices consolidated at lows in the 149,800–150,000 yuan range, ultimately closing down 3.71% at 149,900 yuan/mt, with open interest down 1,517 lots. This week, China's lithium carbonate supply continued to recover, mainly driven by the completion of maintenance and gradual production resumptions at some lithium chemical plants using spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lake sources, while the recycling segment maintained normal production. In terms of market transactions and inventory changes, with the start of the month, upstream lithium chemical plants successively shipped long-term contract volumes. A small number of lithium chemical plants showed increased willingness to sell spot orders as prices rose above 160,000 yuan/mt this week, leading to a reduction in inventory. Downstream material plants, despite a continued increase in consumption, saw basically stable inventory as long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials were successively delivered, and their willingness to purchase spot orders gradually strengthened as prices fell below 155,000 yuan/mt. Traders saw a slight inventory drawdown as upstream spot shipments edged up and downstream spot purchases remained normal.

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