SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Apr 26)

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2406 aluminum contract opened at 20,515 yuan/mt, with its lowest and highest at 20,355 yuan/mt and 20,530 yuan/mt before closing at 20,375 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt or 0.2%. LME aluminum opened at $2,585/mt yesterday, with its high and low at $2,612/mt and $2,560.5/mt respectively before closing at $2,571/mt, down $13/mt or 0.5%.

Summary: On the macro front, the initial value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in the US in April was 49.9, lower than market expectations. The resilience of the US economy loosened, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter was lower than expected, and the expectation of interest rate cuts fell again. Domestically, GDP grew by 5.3% YoY in the first quarter, but recent photovoltaic installation data performed poorly, depressing market expectations. In addition, with the ongoing international trade frictions, the exports environment for aluminum semis will deteriorate in the future. On the fundamentals, the domestic aluminum supply maintained a growth trend, the imported primary aluminum suffered severe losses, the expectation of a decline in the impact of primary aluminum imports strengthened, the downstream operation is generally stable, and the downstream enthusiasm for replenishing inventory at low prices is moderate. The spot aluminum inventory dropped during the week, providing certain support for aluminum prices. At the same time, the operating rate at domestic mine is unlikely to improve, and the alumina market prices swung on a strong note, somehow supporting aluminum prices. The aluminum market prices fluctuated amid bullish and bearish factors.