According to customs data, China's imports of FeNi and NPI were 633,200 mt in physical content in March (down 14.0% MoM, but up 20.4% YoY), or 87,000 mt in nickel content (down 7.2% MoM, but up 10.8% YoY). Specifically, FeNi imports were 15,500 mt in physical content, down 6.5% MoM and 73.3% YoY. Slow Indonesian RKAB approval in March caused the tight supply of raw materials. NPI smelters' output increased compared with February but marginally. In addition, as Indonesian stainless steel production increased in March, NPI exports to China were fewer than before. Due to local inflation and high nickel ore prices, overseas FeNi smelters operated at a loss, so some of them stopped production. Some FeNi smelters shifted their markets, with Europe and the United States as the main target, so exports to China continued to decline.
As of late April, as Lebaran caused slow RKAB approval, raw material supply tightness continued in the short term. Although there was some increase in supply in March, the current nickel ore consumption is still mainly based on stocks. In addition, Indonesian stainless steel production is expected to remain around 420,000 mt in April, consuming more local NPI. Therefore it is expected that NPI imports may continue to decline in April.
