Nickel prices are affected by fundamentals, and the Federal Reserve has no expectation of interest rate cuts in the short term.
SMM, February 1: On February 1, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 127,530 yuan/ton and the closing price was 126,240 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton from the closing price of the previous trading day. Intraday trading was stronger than the previous trading day, with a decrease of 16,855 lots and an increase of 4,228 lots in open interest. Under this combination, both the long and short sides increased their positions, but the short side actively increased their positions. This also shows that the bears' attitude is more resolute than that of the bulls, and they have a greater grasp of the subsequent decline of the market; At the same time, many parties are reluctant to admit defeat and passively increase their positions at a low level. Therefore, after the emergence of this combination, if the disk reacts excessively and the short-term price falls too much, it will trigger many parties to increase their chips and short-term speculators to intervene, and then superimpose the shorts' take profit and exit, in this case, the probability of a V-shaped reversal in the market is greater. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting announced on the evening of February 1 that the interest rate range for February remained unchanged, and Powell said that the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year still exists, but there is no possibility of interest rate cuts in the short term. From a fundamental point of view, today's spot market is affected by the downstream stocking rhythm coming to an end, the transaction sentiment in the spot market has cooled down, and the supply of pure nickel has increased due to the arrival of some pure nickel. To sum up, it is expected that the follow-up nickel price may fluctuate weakly.
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