Copper concentrate TCs index fall off a cliff, how about smelter production?

In the face of such a low copper concentrate TCs, the current domestic smelter's production situation and the future production situation and how it is, for this reason, we SMM deliberately domestic smelters conducted a detailed research, now will get the conclusions and share them with you.

According to our statistics at present the domestic smelters available copper concentrate inventory including the inventory in the port for nearly 3 weeks, although compared with the previous high of 4.5 weeks has been According to our statistics, the stock of copper concentrate available for domestic smelters, including the stock at the port, is nearly 3 weeks, although it has decreased from 4.5 weeks at the previous high level, but there is still a certain distance from the historical low of 2.5 weeks. According to our actual research, the majority of domestic smelters' copper cathode production in January and February is not affected by the low processing fee and will still maintain normal production, and only 2 smelters have reduced the feeding quantity for their own reasons, which has little impact on the national total production.

According to our research, only one smelter has overhaul plan in February, and only one smelter has overhaul plan in March, 2024 smelter's overhaul time will be concentrated in the 2 quarter, as of now we counted up to 10 smelters have overhaul plan in the 2 quarter, which will help alleviate the situation of copper concentrate tension.

In summary: SMM believes that the current state of ultra-low copper concentrate processing fee has little impact on the domestic production of electrolytic copper in the first quarter, but need to focus on the situation in the second quarter, once the smelter available copper concentrate inventory is below the extreme value, and there is not enough anode plate to supplement the domestic production of electrolytic copper or will be a significant impact!

For more information, please contact winniedai@smm.cn.