Daily Updates on SHFE Base Metals and Stainless Steel Warrants (Dec 12)

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, available supply in the Shanghai region is expected to remain tight. Although some imported copper has been arriving gradually during the day, the actual replenishment volume is relatively limited, and the downward pressure on spot premiums is still fairly constrained in the short term. However, as spot premiums stay high, downstream processing enterprises' acceptance of current prices continues to decline, wait-and-see sentiment in the market has strengthened somewhat, and procurement is gradually shifting toward essential demand. At the same time, with premiums at elevated levels, suppliers' willingness to sell has increased compared with earlier, and some supply previously registered as warrants has begun to flow into the spot market, though the overall released volume remains limited. On balance, tight supply still provides some support for premiums, but negative feedback from the demand side on high premiums is gradually emerging, and Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to pull back somewhat tomorrow.

[SMM Update Ekspor Katoda Tembaga] Pada akhir September, rasio harga tembaga SHFE/LME turun kembali ke 7,6, dan kerugian impor melebar hingga lebih dari 1.500 yuan/mt. Namun, data SMM menunjukkan bahwa pada 23 September, harga spot katoda tembaga SMM #1 terhadap kontrak SHFE tembaga 2610 berada pada premi 1.200-1.480 yuan/mt; pada 21 September, persediaan tembaga SMM di wilayah utama Tiongkok turun menjadi 74.800 mt, sekitar persentil ke-1 selama setahun terakhir, dengan smelter memegang kargo tersedia yang langka dan sudah terjual berlebih. Survei menunjukkan bahwa smelter dengan pengolahan perdagangan konsentrat tembaga dengan manual bahan impor dan kualifikasi ekspor tidak memiliki rencana ekspor signifikan untuk saat ini.