UBS Base Metals Outlook 2024: Copper Will See A Supply Deficit, Aluminum Prices Will Be Higher Later In 2024, Lead And Zinc Will Be In Small Surplus

According to reports by foreign media on November 24, UBS said on Friday that as 2024 approaches, base metals are expected to fluctuate generally within a range in the short term.
The aluminum market is expected to be broadly balanced next year, with a tendency toward shortages, which could push aluminum prices higher later in 2024.
Nickel is expected to continue to face downward pressure as oversupply conditions intensify and become more apparent.
UBS said that for zinc and lead, a small surplus is expected and there is a risk of inventory build-up.
Global copper demand is expected to grow by 2.2% this year, lower than the previously expected 2.7% growth; global copper consumption is expected to grow by 3.3% next year.
UBS said that the copper supply and demand forecast shows that there will be a slight shortage in the future. The supply gap this year is estimated to be 108,000 mt, which is larger than the previous estimate of 105,000 mt. There will be a supply gap of 73,000 mt in 2024. The previous expectation was a shortage of 54,000 mt.
Copper prices are expected to be $8,500/mt in the first quarter of 2024, $9,000/mt in the second quarter, $9,500/mt in the third quarter, and $9,500/mt in the fourth quarter.
Aluminum prices are expected to be $2,250/mt in the first quarter of 2024, $2,300/mt in the second quarter, $2,350/mt in the third quarter, and $2,450/mt in the fourth quarter.
Global refined aluminum supply is expected to expand by just 2.2% this year and 2.7% in 2024.
In 2023, the aluminum market will turn from the previously expected shortage of 484,000 mt to a surplus of 89,000 mt. In 2024, the aluminum market is expected to be short of 7,000 mt(previously expected to be a surplus of 385,000 mt).
Nickel prices are expected to be $16,500/mt in the first quarter of 2024, $16,250/mt in the second quarter, $16,000/mt in the third quarter, and $15,750/mt in the fourth quarter.
UBS said that the strong growth in nickel supply is expected to cause the nickel market to have a substantial surplus of 201,000 mt this year and 200,000 mt in 2024, which is higher than the previously expected surplus of 105,000 mt and 4,000 mt respectively.
Zinc prices are expected to be $2,500 per ton in the first quarter of 2024, $2,500 per ton in the second quarter, $2,600 per ton in the third quarter, and $2,600 per ton in the fourth quarter.
UBS expects global zinc consumption to grow by 0.3% in 2023, lower than the previous forecast of 2.08%; consumption in 2024 is expected to increase by 2.8%, lower than the previous expected growth of 3.9%.
It is expected that the zinc market will have a surplus of about 192,000 mt in 2023, which was previously estimated to be a shortage of 14,000 mt; the surplus may expand to 183,000 mt in 2024, which was previously estimated to be a surplus of 11,000 mt.
Lead prices are expected to be $2,150 per ton in the first quarter of 2024, $2,150 per ton in the second quarter, $2,150 per ton in the third quarter.
UBS estimates that the global lead market will become balanced this year, with a surplus of 38,000 mt previously expected; a surplus of 62,000 mt is expected next year.