SMM Analysis Of China’s October Unwrought Aluminium Alloy Imports And Exports

According to customs data, China’s import volume of unwrought aluminium alloy in October 2023 was 108,900 mt, up 9.2% YoY and 17.5% MoM, bringing total imports in the first ten months of 2023 up to 907,800 mt, down 15.9% YoY. In October 2023, export volume of unwrought aluminium alloy was 15,400 mt, down 15.6% YoY and 45.1% MoM, bringing total exports in the first ten months of 2023 up to 206,100 mt, up 10.9% YoY.

In October, the top five suppliers of China's unwrought aluminium alloy imports were Malaysia (49,600 mt), Thailand (10,100 mt), Vietnam (9,600 mt), South Korea (6,300 mt) and Russia (6,200 mt), accounting for 45.6%, 9.3%, 8.8%, 5.8% and 5.7% respectively. The hike in monthly imports was mainly concentrated in Malaysia, with an increase of 12,700 mt MoM, and its import proportion hiking from 40% to 46%, while the proportions of other countries declined.

In terms of exports, China’s unwrought aluminium alloy exports to Japan fell to 6,100 mt, accounting for 40%, lower than 62% in September.

In October 2023, China's top five provinces in terms of import volume of unwrought aluminium alloys were Zhejiang (52,000 mt), Guangdong (19,000 mt), Fujian (11,000 mt), Jiangsu (10,000 mt) and Shandong (4,000 mt), accounting for 48%, 17%, 10%, 9% and 3% respectively.

Most of aluminium alloy ingots arriving at ports in October were orders from August and September. Domestic aluminium prices kept hiking in September, and gradually rose to above 19,000 yuan/mt. ADC12 prices followed suit. At this time, overseas quotations were stable at $2,240-2,270/mt. Under this circumstance, the import window opened. Profits of ADC12 imports once hit 800 yuan/mt, but narrowed to 300-500 yuan/mt after the National Day holiday, in line with falling ADC12 prices in China.

Recent overseas quotes hovered at a high of $2,250-2,290/mt. RMB appreciation has raised the exchange rate of RMB against USD to around 7.13, a near four-month high, allowing import operations to maintain a slight profit of 0-200 yuan/mt. November and December port arrivals are forecasted to remain around 100,000 mt per month.