China's Alumina Output In September And Forecast For October

SHANGHAI, Oct 11 (SMM) –

According to SMM data, China's production of metallurgical-grade alumina in September (30 days) was 6.732 million mt, with an average daily production of 224,400 mt, down 2,000 mt/day MoM. This decrease was mainly due to a part of the production capacity in Guangxi being shut down because of ore supply shortage. Maintenance at some alumina plants in Shandong and Shanxi also affected overall operating rates, leading to a decrease in average daily production in September compared to August. Compared to August, total production in September fell by 4.1% MoM. However, alumina production in September increased by 0.4% YoY. As of the end of September, China's installed capacity for alumina was 100 million mt, with an operating capacity of 81.9 million mt, and a nationwide operating rate of 81.9%. From January to September, China's cumulative alumina production was 59.422 million mt, up 2.0% YoY.

In the Shanxi region, the overall operating rate in September was 72.8%, slightly down by 0.4% MoM. This decline was mainly due to line maintenance at some alumina factories, affecting an annual capacity of 550,000 mt. However, a new capacity of 500,000 mt from a Shanxi alumina factory reached full production in September.

In the Henan region, the overall operating rate in September was 72.7%, up by 3.8% MoM. This increase was largely driven by some alumina factories that use imported or a mix of imported and domestic ores, which ramped up their production in September due to improving profit margins.

According to SMM's research, mines in the Sanmenxia area remain halted with no short-term expectations for production resumption.

In the Guizhou region, certain alumina factories maintained low production due to ore supply instability, keeping the provincial operating rate steady at 81.6% in September.

In the Hebei region, the operating rate in September reached 87.5%, up 4.2% MoM. This was mainly due to some alumina factories in Hebei resuming production in September after August maintenance, affecting a capacity of 500,000 mt, which led to a rise in production.

In the Guangxi region, the operating rate decreased from 92.0% in the previous month to 89.0%. This was primarily due to an alumina factory ceasing production for 10 days due to tight ore supply, affecting an annual capacity of 330,000 mt, and some other companies undergoing maintenance in September, affecting an annual capacity of 250,000 mt.

In the Shandong region, the provincial operating rate fell from 94.4% in August to 90.9% in September. This was mainly due to a large alumina factory in Shandong undergoing maintenance in September that affected an annual capacity of 1 million mt, but it has now resumed normal production.

Forecast:

In the upcoming month, the Guangxi region is set to partially recover its previously halted production capacity, albeit at a slow pace. However, due to planned maintenance in October, a slight decrease in total output is anticipated.

In Henan's Sanmenxia area, there are no immediate plans for mine resumption, hence the ongoing ore supply deficit is expected to continue limiting some capacity, with no significant MoM change.

Companies in Shanxi, which were under maintenance in September, resumed operations in early October. However, rising costs in alumina ore and caustic soda may impede further production increases. In contrast, all companies in Shandong and Hebei that underwent September maintenance have resumed production.

Therefore, SMM predicts that the daily average alumina production in October will be 227,000 mt/day, and the total operating capacity is projected to be about 83.02 million mt, up 5.6% MoM.