China's Aluminium Output In September And Forecast For October

SHANGHAI, Oct 11 (SMM) –

According to SMM statistics, China's domestic aluminium production for September 2023 was 3.523 million mt, up 5.5% YoY. The average daily production of aluminium in September rose by 554 mt MoM, reaching approximately 117,400 mt. From January to September 2023, China's cumulative aluminium production reached 30.822 million mt, up 3.13% YoY. In September, operations for domestic aluminium billet plants and other downstream enterprises who use molten aluminium remained stable overall, with the alloying ratios in some plants showing an upward adjustment. The proportion of domestic molten aluminium output increased by 0.4% MoM and 4.9% YoY to around 73.2%. According to SMM's molten aluminium ratio data, the volume of domestic aluminium ingots in September was down by 10.9% YoY. From January to September 2023, the total volume of domestic ingots was about 9.12 million mt, down 12% YoY.

In September, there was a slight increase in China's operating capacity for aluminium. This was mainly due to the ongoing commissioning of capacity transfer projects in regions such as Yunnan and Guizhou. Only a few companies underwent minor maintenance, and capacity changes in other regions were minimal.

According to SMM statistics, China's installed capacity for aluminium stood at about 45.19 million mt as of the end of September. This includes capacities that have been built but not yet operational, and capacities that have not yet been phased out. The operating capacity for aluminium in China rose to around 42.94 million mt. The national operating rate for aluminium smelters was about 95%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points MoM.

As we move into October, significant fluctuations in China's aluminium supply are not anticipated. The concentrated resumption of production has been largely completed, and larger resumptions are not expected within the year. The capacity awaiting resumption is mainly in regions like Liaoning, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan, totaling around 1.29 million mt. However, most of these do not have the conditions for a quick resumption, with other capacities are under construction or being idled due to a lack of quotas.

Currently, the aluminium industry is profitable, with many companies focusing on maintaining stable production and not planning short-term voluntary reductions. Additionally, hydropower supply is stable in areas like Yunnan, so the province's aluminium production is expected to remain steady in the short term.

Considering capacity changes in other regions, SMM predicts that by the end of October, the total aluminium operating capacity in China may stabilize at around 42.95 million mt. The total aluminium production in October (31 days) may reach about 3.64 million mt, an increase of 6.7% YoY. It remains crucial to continuously monitor the electricity situation in the southwest and other regions, as well as the operations of aluminium companies.