SMM Morning Comment For Aluminium Market On September 15

SHANGHAI, Sep 15 (SMM) – Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2310 aluminum contract opened at 19,360 yuan/mt, with its lowest and highest at 19,310 yuan/mt and 19,390 yuan/mt before closing at 19,330 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt or 0.55% compared with the previous trading day. LME aluminum opened at $2,211/mt on Thursday, with its high and low at $2,239/mt and $2,206.5/mt respectively before closing at $2,220/mt, an increase of $12/mt or 0.54%.

There are expectations for hawkish stance of the US Fed. Domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts unleashed liquidity vitality and effectively boosted market confidence. In the near future, we need to pay close attention to the multiple impacts of interest rate hike expectations in Europe and the US and exchange rate fluctuations on the non-ferrous metals market. Aluminum supply increased, with domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots rising above the 500,000 mt mark, and the inventory pressure in September may mount. At the same time, the supply of imported goods in the market has increased recently, and we need to be alert to the impact of imported low-priced supplies on the domestic aluminum spot market. Low inventory will support aluminum price, while supply pressure will cap gains. It remains uncertain how strong demand will be in September since the demand in peak season didn’t reach expectations. SMM expects short-term aluminum prices to remain volatile at a high level and will pay attention to domestic aluminum inventories and downstream consumption in the future.