SHANGHAI, Aug 3 (SMM) -
Although the third round of coke price increases just ended, the signs of the fourth round of price hikes have emerged. Driven by this round of price increases and the recent resumption of production of blast furnaces at steel mills in Tangshan, both coke and coking coal futures prices rose by 3.98% and 3.06% respectively as of the close of the daytime market on August 1.
And the national coal production has grown steadily. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the raw coal output of enterprises above the designated size in June was 390 million mt, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. And the growth rate was 17 percentage points lower than that in May, with an average daily output of 13 million mt. From January to June, the cumulative raw coal output of enterprises above designated size nationwide was 23 billion mt, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%.
In terms of spot goods, according to SMM quotations, the national average price of first-grade metallurgical coke-CDQ was 2,450 yuan/mt on August 1, the price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke-CDQ was 2,310 yuan/mt, the price of first-grade metallurgical coke-wet quenching was 2,040 yuan/mt, and the price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke-wet quenching was 1,958 yuan/mt.
On the whole, benefiting from the removal of environmental protection-induced production restrictions in the Tangshan area, some blast furnaces that were shut down before have begun to resume production recently, and steel mills are expected to increase their demand for coke, while coke companies have smooth shipments of coke, leading to low inventories and strong cost support. Thus, SMM predicts that the coke market may run strongly in the short term, and the expectation of the fourth round of price increases is likely to become a reality.
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