SMM Lead Market Comment And Forecast (July 13)

Futures trading:

Overnight, the lead price was set at $2060.5 per ton, with a slight upward trend during the Asian period; After entering the European period, it fell to 2059 US dollars/ton. As the US CPI data fell more than expected in June, the US Disinflation slowed down, and the U.S. Dollar Index hit a low point, Lunzilla rose to a high of 2095 US dollars/ton, and finally closed at 2095 US dollars/ton, up 1.53%. Its holdings decreased by 3466 to 119000 compared to the previous trading day, and trading volume increased by 435 to 5134.

Overnight, the main 2308 contract of Shanghai Lead jumped high and opened at 15585 yuan/ton, hitting a low of $15565/ton at the beginning of the trading session. It was boosted by the upward trend of LME Lead to reach 15665 yuan/ton, and fluctuated around the front line of 15625 yuan/ton, ending at 15625 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.81%. Its holdings increased by 713 to 90105 compared to the previous trading day, and trading volume decreased by 1272 to 37421.

Today's lead price forecast:

On the macro level, the US CPI data for June fell faster than expected, with an unadjusted annual CPI rate of 3% in June, the smallest increase since March 2021; The signs of cooling inflation in the United States have strengthened hopes that the Federal Reserve may end its interest rate hike cycle earlier than previously expected. In the evening, the United States announced the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending July 8th, as well as the annual and monthly PPI rates for June.

On the spot basis, the supply of raw materials is still tight, and their prices are high and difficult to maintain. The circulation of goods in the lead market is tightening. At present, some regional dealers have reported that the terminal consumption of electric bicycle batteries in the market is still average, but battery sales have slightly improved compared to June. During this period, manufacturers have also raised battery prices; Manufacturers in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have reported that there has been no significant improvement in the order situation for electric bicycle batteries in July, and the factory has basically maintained production based on sales, with a production line operating rate of 70-80%. Overall, with relatively stable macro conditions, short-term lead prices may maintain a range of fluctuations.