Trading limit sealing board! Another chemical giant 10 billion "killed" lithium iron phosphate

Lithium iron phosphate, like a "magic of love", has attracted one crop after another of companies to cross the border.

On the evening of March 28th, Jinpu Titanium Industry (000545) announced that it would build a new energy battery materials integration project based on its new coal chemical synthetic material base in Anhui (Huaibei), with a total investment of about 10 billion yuan.

Specifically, the project is divided into three phases, it will build 200000 tons / year battery-grade iron phosphate, 200000 tons / year lithium iron phosphate, 8000 tons / year lithium hexafluorophosphate, 300000 tons / year × 2 pyrite sulfuric acid, 150000 tons / year phosphoric acid, 120000 tons / year refined phosphoric acid and its supporting projects.

In the secondary market, Jinpu titanium industry is trading as a limit today. As of March 29, it closed at 4.28 yuan, up 10.03%, with a total market capitalization of 4.224 billion.

Chemical enterprises swarmed in

The core of lithium iron phosphate battery is lithium iron phosphate cathode material, and in the production process of lithium iron phosphate cathode material, the solid phase process with iron phosphate as precursor is mature and controllable, which is one of the most widely used methods for the production of lithium iron phosphate at present. With the rapid growth of demand for lithium iron phosphate, the supply of iron phosphate as the main precursor tends to be tight.

Jinpu titanium industry is one of the earliest domestic enterprises to develop and produce high-grade rutile titanium dioxide and chemical fiber titanium dioxide, which has the advantages of cost and industrial chain in the production of iron phosphate. On the one hand, the sulphuric acid plant matched with sulphuric acid production or pyrite sulphuric acid plant can be used directly, and at the same time, ferrous sulfate, a by-product of titanium dioxide production, can be directly used in the preparation of ferric phosphate. The double superposition of equipment and raw materials saves costs to a great extent; on the other hand, a whole set of processes is an extension and strengthening of the Jinpu titanium industry industry chain, which helps to create a more competitive integrated industry.

And this is precisely the common advantage of titanium dioxide enterprises, based on this, in addition to Jinpu titanium industry, there have been a number of titanium dioxide listed companies such as Longbai Group, China Nuclear Titanium dioxide, Anada and other listed companies to invest heavily in the field of lithium iron phosphate.

The industrial chain of lithium iron phosphate battery is phosphate rock-industrial grade phosphoric acid / monoammonium phosphate-iron phosphate-lithium iron phosphate cathode-iron lithium battery.

In this regard, phosphorus chemical enterprises have the same resource and cost advantages. First, the phosphate rock is rich in resources, and the preparation process of refined phosphoric acid is mature. Raw materials such as refined phosphoric acid, H 2O O, liquid ammonia and other raw materials for the production of iron phosphate have been matched by themselves, and iron raw materials can be purchased nearby. the distribution of lithium iron phosphate field has the advantages of natural raw materials.

Second, the cost advantage is obvious. Yu Tong, a battery materials analyst at SMM, has previously said that phosphoric acid accounts for 70% of the cost of iron phosphate, so it is the main factor affecting the price of iron phosphate. It is estimated that the cost of the ferric phosphate factory without raw material advantage is 12600 yuan / ton, and that of the factory with phosphorus source advantage is 11000 yuan / ton, and the cost reduction space is nearly 13%.

Since 2021, including Xingfa Group, Chuanheng shares, Chuanfa Dragon Python, Longyi Technology, Yuntu Holdings, Hubei Yihua, Chuanjinuo, Yuntianhua, Xinyangfeng, Sirte and other phosphorus chemical enterprises cross-border layout of iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate materials.

The choice of market

Let's first look at a recent piece of data:

On March 8, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the catalogue of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles (the second batch in 2022). A total of 28 new energy passenger vehicles were selected. Among them, there are 6 ternary battery models, 1 cobalt-free lithium battery model, and the remaining 21 models are all lithium iron phosphate battery models, accounting for 75%!

The latest installed capacity data from the Battery Alliance show that ternary battery production 11.6GWh in February accounted for 36.6% of the total output, an increase of 127.2% over the same period last year, and lithium iron phosphate battery production 20.1GWh, accounting for 63.1% of the total output, an increase of 364.1% over the same period last year.

In other words, in terms of production, ternary batteries account for about 1/3, while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for nearly 2/3 of the total output. This is also the 10th consecutive month that the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries has exceeded that of ternary batteries.

Even in terms of the installed capacity of power batteries, the total installed capacity of ternary batteries was 5.8 GWH in February, while the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 7.8GWh. The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery exceeded that of ternary battery for the eighth month in a row.

Vike Lithium believes that the final formation of data is caused by the choice of the market. At present, Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, Hyundai, Rivian and other international mainframe factories have basically established two technical routes of high nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate in parallel. And South Korean lithium giant LG New Energy and SK On have begun to follow the production of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Not only that, there is also a trend in the market, not only battery giants scramble for lithium iron phosphate "big cake", ternary cathode material head enterprises are also making intensive efforts of lithium iron phosphate!

Overcapacity is inevitable.

With the pursuit of lithium iron phosphate battery in the market and the rapid increase in the price of lithium iron phosphate, there are many investment plans of lithium iron phosphate released in the market recently. Predictably, overcapacity of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate batteries is inevitable.

At the Power Battery Forum of China Electric vehicle Bairen Club a few days ago, Li Kun, chairman of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, said that by 2025, the production capacity of the top 10 enterprises with iron-lithium positive, ternary positive and negative materials will reach 546,267,3.17 million tons respectively. Supply will far exceed demand.

To further subdivide these resources, the precursors of iron-lithium cathode materials can be made of iron phosphate, titanium dioxide (by-products) or iron oxide. our demand is at the million-ton level, while the supply starts at more than 100 million tons.

This is also consistent with the view that Ouyang Minggao, vice chairman of the China Electric vehicle Association and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, who gave a speech on the same stage, will have battery overcapacity in 2025.

Ouyang Minggao pointed out that China's battery capacity may reach 1.5 billion kilowatt hours (1500GWh) in 2023 and 3 billion kilowatt hours in 2025. Battery shipments are expected to reach 1200GWh in 2025, of which 70 to 80 percent will be used in the domestic market and 20 to 30 percent will be exported to overseas markets. We expect battery overcapacity in 2025.

Unlimited supply of resources is bound to lead to overcapacity because demand is limited. How to form a stable balance is also a permanent topic in the process of industrial development.