The contradiction between supply and demand is still optimistic about the high continuity of lithium price in the off-season [institutional review]

Core point of view

Lithium: the contradiction between supply and demand still exists in the off-season, and we are optimistic about the continuity of the high price of lithium.

1) the sales of Xineng cars exceeded expectations in January, and the demand side was not weak in the off-season: in January, the sales of domestic mainstream electric car companies generally exceeded expectations. BYD / GAC Ean / Xiaopeng achieved sales of 9.3 paces per annum in January, with a year-on-year increase of 362 per cent, 118 per cent and 115 per cent, respectively. The demand side is not light in the off-season, driving battery-grade lithium carbonate up 7.7% to 392,000 yuan / ton in the first week after the Spring Festival, and lithium hydroxide up 9.4% to 3.265 million yuan / ton.

2) in the short term, the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to solve. On the demand side, the new capacity downstream continues to climb, the procurement demand is strong, and the smooth transmission of lithium prices is expected to continue to rise or continue to be high; on the supply side, the maintenance range of large factories is obvious, and some smelters reduce and stop production due to the influence of the Winter Olympic Games, and the shortage of lithium resources continues. Some smelters have stopped production due to lack of ore, and the price of lithium resources is high and difficult to find, and the shortage of supply is difficult to alleviate.

3) in the medium and long term, the lithium price may be high for a long time, and the lithium industry may be high and continuous or exceed expectations. On the demand side, the new energy vehicle industry chain has entered the era of endogenous growth, and the demand pull has a strong explosive power.

On the supply side, high-quality new mines are scarce, and overseas existing mines have also revised production guidelines. Superimposed on the fact that the governments and people of Chile, Mexico, Serbia and other countries are tightening their attitudes towards the development of local lithium resources, in the medium to long term, the increments available for new projects in the next few years may be very limited, and it will be difficult for new lithium supplies to match the demand growth of 100,000 to 250,000 tons of LCE+ per year, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry may exist for a long time. Optimistic about the long-term high prosperity of "white oil" lithium resources, the target allocation value of lithium resources with high certainty of performance release and significant marginal improvement is more prominent. Related targets: Rongjie shares, Koda Manufacturing, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium Industry, Ya Hua Group, Jiangte Motor, Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Yongxing Materials, Zang GE Holdings, Tianhua Super Clean, China Mineral Resources, Tibet Mining, Tibet City Investment, etc.