Weekly strategy for non-ferrous steel industry (week 1, 2022): lithium carbonate prices accelerate and profits of electrolytic aluminum continue to pick up [institutional review]

Macro:

The United States is expected to raise interest rates ahead of schedule, and China's manufacturing index has rebounded for two months in a row. Recently, Federal Reserve Brad said that in order to deal with inflation, it is expected to raise interest rates as soon as March, and then start shrinking the table. At the same time, the Fed meeting pointed out that given the outlook for the economy, the labor market and inflation, it is necessary to raise the federal funds rate in advance and shrink the table faster than in the previous cycle. Domestic: China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.3% in December, up 0.2 percentage points from November, above the critical point, and the manufacturing boom continued to pick up.

Steel:

Steel mills continue to resume production, but are still subject to the expected restrictions of the Winter Olympic Games. This week, rebar production increased significantly by 2.71% month-on-month, and consumption increased by 9.92% month-on-month. Steel mills continue to resume production this week, but the pace of resuming production is still limited by expectations of the Winter Olympic Games. Steel enterprises in some areas are slow to resume production.

New Energy Metals:

Lithium carbonate prices break through 300000 yuan / ton, it is recommended to pay attention to the plate follow-up rebound opportunities. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide was 242500 yuan / ton this week, up 8.99% from the previous month; the price of domestic 99.5% battery-grade lithium carbonate was 302000 yuan / ton, up 9.82% from the previous month. This week, MB standard cobalt rose slightly by 0.67%, cobalt tetroxide increased by 2.17%. For nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was 20900 US dollars / ton, down 0.12% from the previous month.

Industrial metals:

The price trend of copper and aluminum continues to diverge, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum continues to pick up. This week, copper smelter TC/RC significantly increased 1.64% month-on-month, global refined copper production, primary refined copper production decreased slightly in September, electrolytic aluminum operating rate remained high at 88% in October, slightly decreased 1.24PCT compared with the previous month; in terms of inventory, LME copper inventory significantly decreased, LME aluminum inventory significantly decreased; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper fell slightly by 0.79% month-on-month this week; in terms of profit, the profit of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shandong and Inner Mongolia rose month-on-month this week.

Kim:

The Fed is expected to raise interest rates again, and precious metals prices are under pressure. This week, the price of COMEX gold fell slightly by 1.05% from the previous month, the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold fell slightly by 0.84% from the previous month, and the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note this week was 1.76%, slightly higher than the previous month-on-month 0.24PCT.

Investment suggestion and investment target

Steel: in terms of Pu Steel, on the one hand, it is recommended to pay attention to listed companies with low carbon emission intensity per ton of steel and low energy consumption per ton, and to pay attention to CITIC Special Steel (000708, bought), Fangda Special Steel (600507, unrated), Valin Steel (000932, bought), and on the other hand, listed companies with lower PB, such as Maanshan Iron and Steel (600808, unrated), New Steel (600782, unrated), Angang (000898, unrated), TISCO stainless (000825, unrated). Unrated); Special steel, it is recommended to pay attention to new energy nuclear power, wind power supply enterprises, such as Jiuli special materials (002318, buy).

New energy metals: it is recommended to pay attention to enterprises rich in lithium resources, such as Ganfeng Lithium Industry (002460, unrated), Yongxing Materials (002756, bought), Salt Lake shares (000792, unrated), etc.

Copper: it is recommended to pay attention to Zijin Mining (601899, unrated), which benefits from smelting processing fees and sulfuric acid prices; and lithium copper foil manufacturers: Jiayuan Technology (688388, unrated), Nord shares (600110, unrated), etc.

Aluminum: it is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. (000807, unrated), Mingtai Aluminum (601677, buy), and high-end aluminum companies (Nanshan Aluminum (600219, unrated), Huafeng Aluminum (601702, buy).

Jin: it is recommended to pay attention to the industry leader Zijin Mining (601899, unrated), Shandong Gold (600547, unrated), Shengda Resources (000603, unrated) and so on.

Risk hint

A slowdown in macroeconomic growth; fluctuations in raw material prices