After New Year's Day, the price of lithium carbonate continued to jump. SMM data show that the average spot price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate is 316000 yuan / ton.
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Behind the jump in lithium prices is the tightening of supply and demand before the festival, but there is little reaction from concept stocks on the market. Some private equity people told the Financial Associated Press that the market has expectations for a jump in prices, and the future will pay attention to whether the production and sales of new energy vehicles can continue to be sold under the high level of lithium salt.
The rising price of lithium is not as good as expected.
Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to rise. SMM data show that the average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen from 278000 yuan / ton to 316000 yuan / ton from January 1 to January 10, with a unit price increase of more than 13.6%.
Supply and demand are tightening behind rising prices. Everbright Securities Research report said that lithium carbonate production in the first week of the year was 3633 tons, falling for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to the overhaul of smelters in mainstream Sichuan and Jiangxi regions, and the holding of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games had a slight impact on Hebei and Shandong.
Huaan Securities Metal New Materials researcher told the Financial Associated Press that pre-holiday stock is the main demand at present. "with the Spring Festival approaching the superposition of epidemic factors, downstream enterprises have to prepare at least half a month of goods, and the demand is expected to be good before the end of the year."
At the same time, lithium hydroxide is also rising. SMM data show that from January 1 to January 10, battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose from 222500 yuan / ton to 258500 yuan / ton, an increase of 16.18%.
However, the rising lithium price did not lead to a rise in the secondary market. After New Year's Day's holiday to the close of January 11, the Oriental Fortune Salt Lake Lithium extraction Index (861378.EI) fell 8.81%, while Tibet's Everest (600388.SH), Ganfeng Lithium Industry (002460.SZ) and Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466.SZ) fell 11.05%, 10.99% and 11.22%, respectively. From a disk point of view, the recent related concept companies are now high open low or horizontal trend.
A private equity person told the Financial Associated Press that lithium mining-related stocks rose a lot earlier and have overdrawn part of the expected rise in lithium carbonate prices. Referring to future expectations, the person said that he will pay attention to whether the production and sales of new energy vehicles can continue to be sold under the high price of lithium carbonate.
Will the price increase eat up the demand?
Under the rise of raw materials in 2021, the gross margin of the battery factory has been squeezed. Compared with the 2020 annual report, the gross profit margins of 002074.SZ, 688567.SH and 300014.SZ fell 6.92 per cent, 15.38 per cent and 5.31 per cent respectively in the third quarter of 2021.
At present, prices are further transmitted downstream, and Funeng Technology said in the summary of investor research that it has negotiated price adjustments with customers. Since December, Tesla and Xiaopeng have raised the price of the whole car one after another. At the same time, some market participants began to worry about whether the rise in raw materials will eat back terminal demand.
A consumer who intends to buy a car told the Financial Associated Press that the rise in insurance premiums for new energy vehicles has increased the cost of car maintenance, and that an increase in the price of intended models will further affect the willingness to buy cars.
Looking forward to 2022, the bus Federation holds good expectations. According to the National passenger car Market Analysis in December 2021, which was originally expected to sell 4.8 million new energy passenger vehicles in 2022, it should now be adjusted to more than 5.5 million, with a penetration rate of about 25 per cent. The number of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%.
According to the latest research report of Huaan Securities, the sales of new energy vehicles in China have maintained rapid growth, and with the gradual improvement of supply-side models and the improvement of competitiveness, new energy vehicles will continue to maintain a high degree of prosperity. Domestic sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 5 million in 2022.
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