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In terms of 300 series, the total inventory of stainless steel is 373400 tons, down 10.48% from the previous week. 300 series cold and hot rolling resources are still going out of stock this week, and the speed of removing cold and hot rolling resources is faster than that of last week. The digestion of cold rolling resources is mainly in Foshan market and Wuxi market, and there is still a small arrival of cold rolling resources in the regional market this week; the digestion of 300 series hot rolling resources is mainly reflected in Wuxi market, and there is also a small digestion in Foshan market and regional market.
New rules on carbon tax for industrial reform in Indonesia have been issued, and competition in the industry has been accelerated. The initial carbon tax is only for coal-fired steam power plants (PLTU),. From April 1, 2022, Indonesia will pay a standard tax of 30 rupiah, equivalent to about US $2.10 per metric ton of carbon equivalent (the spot exchange rate is 13.41 yuan), on carbon equivalent emissions per kilogram exceeding a certain limit.
Nickel: the rising cost of overseas electricity and carbon prices supports the strength of nickel prices emotionally. Nickel is still a fierce long-short game, and the contradiction between bulls and bears is more prominent. the bulls think that electricity and carbon emissions will further raise the cost of nickel prices, and inventory is at a very low level, continuous reduction of inventory, low inventory is difficult to resolve in a short period of time; Bears believe that Indonesia's supply continues to release, terminal demand is low, both stainless steel and new energy are sharply reducing the purchase of raw materials, nickel prices on the long-short game, expected to be mainly wide volatility.
Stainless steel: supply and demand balance, overseas and domestic demand is seasonally strong, demand performance is higher than expected, steel prices pick up slightly.
Fundamentals, steel production profits compressed to near the break-even line, from December to February the following year to take production reduction action, steel prices below the support is strong.
The original title: "Guotai Junan Futures: long and short game on nickel price, expected to be mainly wide volatility"
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![[SMM Analysis] Indonesia's Nickel Benchmark Price Broke Through $18,000 with Strong Momentum, Extreme Weather and Policy Dynamics Intensified Price Divergence](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/sKmGT20251217171733.jpg)
