According to the spot quotation of SMM metal, as of September 13, the price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate has reached 139000,142,000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 140500 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of battery-grade lithium hydroxide. Considering that the price of lithium carbonate is much lower than that of lithium hydroxide, it is not difficult to see that the price of lithium carbonate has risen rapidly recently.
"Click to view the spot market of SMM metal.
Some industry insiders told the Financial Associated Press that there was basically no increase in the scale of lithium salt products in the second half of this year, while as the traditional peak season of lithium batteries, demand soared month-on-month in the second half of the year, or there may be some downstream customers who do not have enough supply for production.
Prior to this, lithium carbonate was relatively mild relative to lithium hydroxide because of supply and demand. Although lithium carbonate contained more lithium than lithium hydroxide, it still produced "price upside down". While the products produced by lithium hydroxide usually have better performance, the spot price of lithium carbonate is "flat", which may mean that the current market gives priority to the supply of goods, and the supply and demand of lithium salt enters the "white-hot" stage.
Tight supply and demand push up the price of lithium carbonate
With the increase in demand and the decrease in supply, the relationship between supply and demand has been further strained. The scarcity of supply in the spot market forces the downstream to purchase at a high price, and the profits of material enterprises are greatly reduced. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate quotation uplink to about 140000 yuan / ton, traders a small number of shipments, but still can not meet the downstream procurement demand, the quotation is expected to continue to rise.
According to a reporter from the Financial Associated Press, NCA and high-nickel NCM mainly use lithium hydroxide, while lithium iron phosphate mainly uses lithium carbonate, but there is also a liquid phase process for the preparation of lithium iron phosphate through lithium hydroxide, while lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate can be used in medium nickel ternary materials.
The reason why the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is "close to" lithium hydroxide has something to do with the higher-than-expected sales of new energy vehicles and the "resurgence" of iron lithium. According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance on Sept. 10, the number of power batteries installed in China in August was 12.6 GWH, an increase of 11.2% from the previous month, while it had been expected to be flat from the previous month. In addition, the total loading of ternary batteries is 5.3GWhh, and the total loading of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 7.2GWh.Lithium iron phosphate is once again more than ternary batteries.
Whether it is lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, China's major lithium listed companies have basically no new production capacity in the second half of this year. Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466.SZ) "annual capacity of 24000 tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate project" phase I project, optimistically estimated that it may not be put into operation until the end of this year. The current production capacity of foreign Chilean SQM, lithium chemical products is 83500 tons / year, and it is estimated that the production capacity will reach 141500 tons / year in 2021.
The supply and demand of lithium salt has entered the "white-hot" stage.
Although the content of lithium is higher than that of lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate still has a price "upside down" because the tension between supply and demand is weaker than that of lithium hydroxide, and even industrial grade lithium carbonate is used to prepare lithium hydroxide.
Some analysts said that the products produced with lithium hydroxide usually have better performance, and if the price exceeds, it does not rule out the possibility that the ternary material merchants of medium and nickel will switch to lithium hydroxide. In addition, the price difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will be lost, and some manufacturers will no longer use lithium carbonate to produce lithium hydroxide.
According to the further analysis of the above-mentioned people, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate "equals" lithium hydroxide, which means that the supply and demand of lithium salt has entered the "white-hot" stage, under the condition that the spot is difficult to find and the demand is greater than the supply, downstream manufacturers do not hesitate to use the price of lithium hydroxide to buy lithium carbonate.
Returning to production capacity, statistics by a reporter from the Financial Associated Press show that the current capacity of lithium carbonate in the world's major lithium salt plants is 442000 tons, with a planned capacity of about 500000 tons, while the existing capacity of lithium hydroxide is 267800 tons, with a planned capacity of 321500 tons. Among them, among the domestic A-share listed companies, Ganfeng Lithium Industry (002460.SZ) has the highest lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide production capacity of 40500 tons and 81000 tons respectively.
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