Citic Securities said that new energy vehicles have leapfrogged from subsidy-driven to market-driven, and have entered a stage of rapid growth, and the global economy has continued to resonate, especially with the sharp increase in penetration in China and Europe and the resumption of electrification in the United States.
In the medium to long term, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to be close to 20% in 2025. From a global perspective, China's electrified supply chain is developing rapidly and is the most perfect, with the advantages of production capacity, technology, cost and customers, and a large number of suppliers have been matched globally. It is expected that the industry growth dividend will be fully enjoyed, highlighting the value of global high-quality manufacturing assets.
At present, some companies in the industrial chain have high valuations, but driven by the outbreak of downstream demand, the performance growth and certainty of high-quality enterprises in the relevant links of the supply chain are very high, and high valuations are expected to be quickly digested in the future. We will continue to recommend high-quality enterprises in the new energy automobile supply chain with global competitiveness, especially Tesla, Ningde era, LG Chemical and other supply chains.
Domestic downstream: the growth of high-quality supply is accelerating, short-term sales continue to exceed expectations, and medium-and long-term growth is clear.
In the short term, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales has changed from 3Q2020 to regular, and has continued to grow at a high rate, with 3Q20/4Q20/1Q21/2Q21 growth of + 41%, 82%, 359% and 92%, respectively. We have raised our annual sales forecast for 2021 from 2.49 million to 2.83 million, a year-on-year increase of + 121%. In the medium and long term, new energy vehicles have leapfrogged from subsidy-driven to market-driven, and have entered a stage of rapid growth. Driven by policy support and the supply of high-quality products, sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be close to 7.8 million by 2025, with a penetration rate of more than 20%.
Overseas downstream: Tesla leads the world, the high growth rate in Europe continues, and North America bottoms out.
As a global leader in electric vehicles, Tesla continues to expand production and the products are in short supply. He sold 500000 vehicles in 2020 and is expected to sell 1 million vehicles in 2021. Driven by subsidy policies and new carbon regulations, Europe will have 1.367 million vehicles in 2020, a year-on-year increase of + 142%. With the accelerated launch of new models by traditional European automakers, sales of new energy vehicles in Europe are expected to exceed 1.9 million in 2021. From 2017 to 2020, the sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 32 / 330000, respectively. With the policy support of the Biden government, sales of new energy vehicles in the US market in 2021 are expected to exceed 600000, more than 80 per cent year-on-year.
Supply chain: global matching ushered in volume dividend, the value of China's high-quality supply chain is prominent.
China's electrified supply chain is the most perfect in the world, especially lithium batteries and key raw materials (including positive and negative materials, diaphragms, electrolytes, etc.), thermal management, upstream equipment, metal resources and processing and other industry segments are gradually clear. and has the global competitiveness, enters the global supply chain. With the accelerated volume of electric vehicles in the world in 2021 and the outbreak of demand in the electric supply chain, Chinese electric supply chain enterprises, especially the leading enterprises in various links, are speeding up to go overseas and fully enjoy the global electric volume dividend.
He continues to recommend high-quality enterprises with globally competitive supply chains, focusing on the supply chains of Tesla, Volkswagen MEB, LG Chemistry and Ningde era.
Under the continuous volume pull of Tesla, Volkswagen MEB, domestic auto-building new forces and traditional automobile enterprises in the whole vehicle link, the growth certainty of LG chemistry and Ningde era of lithium battery link is high, and its contribution to the growth of its upstream supply chain is clear, and its supply chain is mostly competitive leading enterprises in various fields, which fully enjoy the supporting performance flexibility in the short term. In the medium and long term, the product barrier is high, the demonstration effect is strong, and there is more room for growth, which is worth paying attention to. At the current time, it is recommended to seize two types of opportunities:
1) for some very high-quality companies in the supply chain, the market thinks that the short-term valuation is high, but we believe that driven by the outbreak of downstream demand, such high-quality enterprises have high certainty of performance growth by virtue of their strong competitiveness, and are expected to quickly digest high valuations in the future.
2) the valuations of some companies in the supply chain are not high, benefiting from downstream demand-driven performance and valuation are expected to rise.
"risk factors:
Sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations, terminal price competition intensifies, costs fall less than expected, new energy vehicle policies fluctuate, technological progress falls short of expectations, raw material prices fluctuate, quality and safety of new energy vehicles products.
"Investment advice:
The global prosperity of new energy vehicles continues to resonate upward, the integration of domestic and foreign industrial chain enterprises is accelerated, and Tesla leads many car companies around the world to promote the wave of electric intelligence. In the short term, electric sales in China, Europe and the United States continue to exceed market expectations. In the medium and long term, the trend of electric intelligence of automobile is irreversible, and the permeability is increasing. China's supply chain has global competitiveness, with capacity, technology, cost, customer and other advantages, will fully enjoy the industry growth dividend, the future growth space is huge. Recommend high-quality supply chain enterprises with global competitiveness:
1) Ningde era, BYD, Yiwei LiNeng, Xin Wanda, Jingda Co., Yihuatong, etc.; German Nano, Pu Tailai, New Zebang, Xiamen Tungsten Industry, etc., of battery / motor links, such as Ningde era, BYD, Yiwei Lithium, Xinwang Lithium Co., Ltd.
2) upstream equipment and resources: Ganfeng lithium industry, Hangke science and technology, pilot intelligence, etc.;
3) Thermal management supply chain: Sanhua Intelligent Control (thermal management), Silverwheel shares (thermal management), Top Group;
4) lightweight: Wen can shares, Xusheng shares, Aikodi, Minshi Group, Berkeley, Huayu Automobile, China Ding shares. Suggested attention: Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianci Materials, Yutong bus, Wolong Electric Drive, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Dangsheng Technology, Zhongwei shares, Green Mei, Shanshan shares, Zhongke Electric, Xingyuan material, Tiannai Technology, Aotejia, Kodali and so on.
