Following the Model 3 equipped with lithium iron phosphate battery, Tesla standard version Model Y continues to "carry goods" for lithium iron phosphate battery, and the capital market set off an upsurge in pursuit of lithium iron phosphate battery. It is worth noting that the price of cobalt metal was easily affected by Tesla before, but remained stable in the near future. Cobalt is one of the cathode materials of ternary lithium battery, and ternary lithium battery is the competitor of lithium iron phosphate battery.
Some analysts pointed out that the standard version of Model Y equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries may be more about localization and cost reduction considerations. From the overall market of new energy vehicles, ternary lithium batteries are still popular in the configuration of middle and high-end models. The rising price of cobalt is related to the changes in the power end market, the high level of production start in the lower reaches, and the gradual release of stock demand in the current quarter. It is expected that this round of market will continue until the first ten days of August. After that, we can pay attention to the new stock market at the end of the year.
The price of "Cobalt Master" remains high after it has warmed up.
Ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate are the two mainstream routes of power batteries for new energy vehicles. As one of the cathode materials of ternary lithium batteries, cobalt prices are often disturbed by technical disputes, and Tesla's choice of technical route adds fuel to the fire. For example, in February last year, Tesla may use cobalt-free batteries, and cobalt prices were hit hard, until Tesla and Glencore reached a cooperation agreement on cobalt supply, and cobalt prices gradually stabilized and rebounded.
"Click to view the historical price of SMM Metals.
Compared with the rumors of cobalt-free batteries, some models of Tesla choose lithium iron phosphate batteries to cause much less disturbance to cobalt prices. On July 9, a reporter from the Financial Associated Press confirmed from Tesla's sales staff that the standard version of Model Y battery was equipped with lithium iron phosphate battery. According to the price trend of SMM cobalt, the news did not disturb cobalt prices, which have rebounded since mid-June.
Like the performance of cobalt prices, cobalt-related companies are not interested in the standard version of Model Y news. A reporter from the Financial Associated Press called the securities departments of 603799.SH and 600711.SH as investors. Both companies believe that ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate each have their own markets. Although the reduction of cobalt content in ternary lithium batteries is a trend, the total amount of new energy vehicles will increase and the demand for cobalt will not decrease.
In the first half of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles broke through new highs. Statistics from the China Automobile Association show that from January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 1.215 million and 1.206 million respectively, a two-fold increase over the same period last year, and the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles have been at the same level as the whole year of 2019.
SMM analysts believe that in terms of electrolytic cobalt, the rise in overseas electrolytic cobalt prices is mainly due to increased demand for alloys in overseas aviation and military industry, high expectations of superimposed demand for battery materials in the third quarter, and increased willingness of electrolytic cobalt traders to hoard goods, driving up the market price of electrolytic cobalt as a whole. "View details
The current cobalt market continues until early August.
Huayou Cobalt Securities Department believes that 3C Electronics is also the terminal downstream of cobalt. 3C Electronics has experienced switching in the off-peak season in the first half of the year and is expected to release volume in the second half of the year, which will support cobalt prices. Shengtun Mining Securities Department said that cobalt prices may not have a strong upward driving force in the second half of the year, and cobalt prices may fluctuate. At present, there is no possibility of a sharp fall, but we should pay attention to the stimulation of all parties.
On April 10 this year, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry (603993.SH) and Ningde Times (300750.SZ) held a project signing ceremony in Shanghai, where the two sides will give full play to their respective advantages in the areas of new energy metal resources such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and copper.
Since July, the share prices of cobalt-related companies have risen to varying degrees. By the close of trading on July 12, the shares of Luoyang Molybdenum, Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ), Huayou Cobalt and Shengtun Mining were up 34.5%, 26.94%, 30.99% and 22.58% respectively from the beginning of July. Huayou Cobalt shares have reached their highest level since listing.
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