According to figures released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on July 9, China produced 248000 new energy vehicles (256000 sales) in June 2021, an increase of 14.2 percent from the previous month, an increase of 1.43 percent over the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles was 1.214 million, an increase of 2.3 percent over the same period last year.
The domestic production penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 12.8% in June, significantly exceeding expectations.
(1) the national output of new energy vehicles in June was 248000, a record high in a single month, and the output from March to May was between 21.6 and 217000; (2) the output penetration rate of new energy vehicles (that is, the output of new energy vehicles / national automobile production) reached 12.76% in June, an all-time high of 2.12% month-on-month growth, the fastest month-on-month increase in history. The production penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 9.7% in the first half of 2021, compared with 5.2% in 2019 and 3.6% in the same period in 2020.
Demand for rare earths from lithium, cobalt and magnetic materials has been boosted across the board.
New energy vehicles are very important downstream of batteries, magnets and so on. In 2020, about 62% of lithium carbonate was used in lithium-ion batteries, about 53% of cobalt was used in batteries, and 11% of cobalt was used in magnets, while about 12% of high-performance NdFeB magnets were used in permanent magnet motors for new energy vehicles. High-performance NdFeB magnets account for about 20% of NdFeB production, and about 43% of rare earths are used in NdFeB. Therefore, the high growth of the output of new energy vehicles will undoubtedly significantly boost the consumption of rare earths of lithium, cobalt and magnetic materials.
The price of lithium hydroxide has risen for 30 consecutive weeks, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to reverse in the second half of the year.
The main raw material of lithium hydroxide is spodumene, and downstream is high nickel ternary cathode material. Lithium carbonate is mainly used to prepare lithium iron phosphate and ordinary ternary cathode material, which can be extracted from salt lake or mica. The supply of spodumene is relatively rigid, and the supply of salt lake has seasonal factors. At present, the production of lithium hydroxide has been obviously restricted by the shortage of spodumene, and the output of salt lakes in Qinghai will be relatively reduced after the third quarter, which will boost the price of lithium carbonate. If the production of new energy vehicles continues to expand in the future, it will further support the volume and price of spodumene, lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate.
The price of cobalt sulfate is a new high in three months, and the follow-up supply and demand is expected to reverse.
Cobalt sulfate is mainly used in ternary precursors such as NCA and NCM. The price of cobalt sulfate was 77000 yuan per ton on July 9th, a new high in the past three months. According to the forecast, the cobalt demand in the third quarter will benefit from the continuous discharge of new energy vehicles, while the cobalt supply is limited by the decline of mine grade and the stricter management of grasping ore, so that the growth of supply is lower than that of demand, and the price of cobalt will move up accordingly. The cobalt industry may maintain a tight balance from 2021 to 2022, and the cobalt industry is expected to be in short supply in 2023.
The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has increased by 13.5% in the past month, and the value of the rare earth magnetic material industry chain is expected
NdFeB can be used as permanent magnet in permanent magnet Synchronize motor of new energy vehicle. the upstream material of NdFeB is mainly metal praseodymium neodymium, which is prepared by praseodymium neodymium oxide. As of July 9, 2021, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide reached 532000 yuan per ton, with a price increase of 13.5% in the past month. Recently, some enterprises in Sichuan have stopped production due to environmental protection, as well as a sharp rise in waste prices, an increase in the cost of praseodymium-neodymium oxide and a reduction in supply, accelerating the rebound in praseod In the future, benefiting from the vigorous development of the new energy vehicle industry chain, the rare earth magnetic material industry chain is expected to usher in a revaluation.
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