Ningde announced the release of sodium battery around July, difficult to disturb lithium long logic on May 23, according to Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde era, Ningde era will release sodium battery around July 2021. At present, the energy density of sodium ion battery is only 140 whip kg, which is much lower than that of 170 whip kg of lithium iron phosphate, so it is difficult to compete with lithium ion battery in the field of power battery with high energy density. At present, the most widely used sodium battery is sodium-sulfur battery. In Japan, there are more sodium-sulfur battery used in the field of energy storage. Sodium-sulfur battery has high power efficiency and has advantages in large-scale energy storage of Electroweb. The operating temperature of sodium-sulfur battery is 300-350 degrees Celsius, so it is not suitable for miniaturization and can not be used in the field of distributed energy storage.
Tianfeng Securities believes that sodium batteries and lithium batteries are complementary rather than competitive. In the field of power batteries, sodium batteries have no conditions to compete with lithium batteries; in the field of energy storage, distributed energy storage lithium batteries have great advantages, and sodium batteries have certain advantages in large-scale energy storage. Therefore, sodium batteries do not pose a threat to lithium batteries, and the two can complement each other in the field of energy storage.
Sales of new energy vehicles are not weak in April, and the penetration of large-size new energy vehicles is expected to lead to an increase in lithium demand. China's sales of new energy vehicles in April were 206000, an increase of 180.3% over the same period last year. In terms of breakdown, sales of A00-class models are down 10% month-on-month. Class A cars increased by 26% month-on-month. We believe that the permeability of large-size models of new energy vehicles will continue to increase under the guidance of the policy, corresponding to a significant increase in the amount of electricity per car, and the demand for lithium salt is expected to continue to grow.
The price of lithium hydroxide is expected to continue to rise.
At present, the market price of lithium hydroxide is strong, and the market inventory level is gradually consumed. However, judging from the suppliers' quotations, it is expected that the actual transaction price in May will continue to rise compared with this month's price center, and the overall price difference between lithium carbonate and lithium carbonate will be gradually repaired. The demand for high-nickel ternary cathode materials at home and abroad has increased significantly, while the release of lithium hydroxide production capacity is lower than expected, strongly supporting the price of lithium hydroxide. It is expected that the supply of lithium hydroxide may be tight during the peak demand season in the second half of this year.
Huayou Cobalt plans to acquire 38.6% stake in Bamo Technology, Glencore plans to restart the Mutanda copper and cobalt mine in the second quarter of the off-season, digital 3C purchase demand orders decline, power, small power purchase demand orders are basically maintained, cobalt raw material supply is better than the first quarter, and the overall cobalt price is weaker. According to media sources, Glencore plans to restart the Mutanda (Mutanda) copper and cobalt project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo next year (5 copper production lines + 3 cobalt hydroxide production lines). Combined with the high price of cobalt intermediate products in the early stage, there is still a gap in the inventory of domestic cobalt raw materials, and the downward space of cobalt price is limited. In addition, Huayou Cobalt plans to acquire 38.6% stake in Bamo Technology with 1.351 billion yuan to strengthen the distribution of cathode materials. Suggested attention: Huayou Cobalt Industry, Hanrui Cobalt Industry.
The downstream demand is strongly supported, and the titanium price is strong.
The phenomenon of insufficient supply of domestic titanium concentrate is becoming more and more normal, and the imported ore is about to enter the quarterly price adjustment stage. at present, there are not many in stock, so the order is closed temporarily. The new order of titanium dioxide is under pressure, but it has not been sealed before the price adjustment this month. It is expected that many manufacturers will be full of production within nearly a month, raw material prices are high, most manufacturers purchase on demand, and there is a stable demand for raw materials in the future; there is a stable demand expectation in the sponge titanium military market, and the demand for raw materials is stable in the near future.
Risk hints: the risk of demand picking up less than expected, the risk of a sharp increase in upstream supply, the risk of repeated epidemics, and the risk of a substantial increase in inventory.
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