There are three more trading days to celebrate the Spring Festival of the year of the Ox. What problems should investors pay attention to before and during the holidays? In this regard, the Futures Daily reporter interviewed relevant people.
"celebrating the Spring Festival on the spot" may become an important factor affecting the economy during the Spring Festival holiday.
Due to the Spring Festival holiday, the monthly economic data from January to February will be released in mid-March. The domestic holiday presents a data vacuum period. Due to the base effect, the economic data in the first quarter of this year will be extremely bright. Us non-farm payrolls rose by 49000 in January and are expected to increase by 50, 000, compared with a previous decrease of 140000, announced on Friday.
Zhou Zhiyun, a macro analyst at CUHK Futures, told reporters that the most important thing to pay attention to during the holiday period is the changes in the epidemic. On the domestic side, the policy most related to the economy is the "Emergency notice on doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control work such as people returning to their hometown during the Spring Festival travel period of 2021" issued by the State Council in response to the COVID-19 epidemic situation Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism Integrated Group (Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism Comprehensive Development (2021) No. 25). The circular requires that all localities should standardize and implement the requirements for epidemic prevention and control during the Spring Festival transportation in 2021, do a good job in epidemic prevention and control scientifically and accurately, and should not "add code" or "layer by layer" on the basis of the current policy. expand the scope of the population at will, increase the frequency of nucleic acid testing, change the mode of home health surveillance, and so on.
In the interview, the reporter found that this year's Spring Festival is still very different from the past, and the number of people celebrating the Spring Festival on the spot will increase significantly. For example, Wang Xiuchun, deputy director of the Transport Department of the Ministry of Transport, said at a news conference held by the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council that it is expected to send about 1.7 billion passengers during the Spring Festival travel season in 2021, with an average of about 40 million passengers a day, down more than 40% from 2019 and an increase of more than 10% over 2020. Related traffic big data also shows that the pre-sale of railway tickets for the Spring Festival travel season in 2021 has dropped by nearly 60% compared with the same period in previous years. Against this backdrop, Zhou Zhiyun predicts that consumption may be more anticipated than in previous years, but there will be greater differences between urban and rural areas. For example, "local tour" and "peripheral tour" have become the main ways to play during this year's Spring Festival holiday. Correspondingly, tourism, catering and hotel income in first-and second-tier cities are even more expected because of the large number of workers celebrating the Spring Festival there. As for the impact on the stock market, Zhou Zhiyun believes that the additional consumer demand generated by the local New year will have a positive impact on listed companies and industries such as catering, hotels and tourism in big cities.
In overseas markets, the latest data show that the total amount of novel coronavirus vaccination has risen to 105 million doses, and the number of confirmed cases of "diagnosis" is 103.5 million. The number of inoculation of novel coronavirus lung vaccine in the world has exceeded the total number of confirmed cases. This is a landmark moment that shows the progress made in curbing the novel coronavirus epidemic.
Up to now, the United States has been vaccinated with an overall dose of 33.88 million doses, with an average of 1.32 million doses per day for nearly 7 days, which continues to accelerate and is progressing smoothly as a whole. "according to our forecast, if the current vaccination rate can be further increased to 2 million doses a day, it will initially reach 70 per cent population coverage by the end of the second quarter, otherwise it will be even later. Overall, if the vaccination goes well, the discussion of the Fed's policy exit is likely to heat up further, and even the Fed will give forward guidance to manage market expectations, for US stocks and US Treasuries. will face more and more pressure. " Zhou Zhiyun said.
According to Zhou Zhiyun, non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 49000 in January, less than expected by 105000, and fell by 140000 in December last year. Although the data were lower than expected, 10-year Treasury yields fell by about 2 BP at one point after the data were released, but then rose again, and precious metals continued to be suppressed by upward US bond yields. It can be seen from the speech made by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the previous interest rate meeting that Fed officials have become more positive about the outlook for the US economy, so as long as the non-farm payrolls data are not too bad in the short term, it will not affect the Fed's timetable for reducing bond purchases in the future, and the market reaction will be more cautious than in the past.
Crude oil: pay attention to the monthly reports of the three major institutions
The Shanghai International Energy Trading Center was closed from February 11 to 17, and night trading was not held on the evening of February 10. In order to cope with the unexpected fluctuations in the outer disk market during the Spring Festival, on February 4, the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center issued relevant regulations on the insurance and expansion board of crude oil futures during the Spring Festival. From February 9 to 18, the margin of the exchange was raised from 10% to 13%. The trading limit was raised from 8% to 11%, and returned to the normal level after February 18. Investors should pay attention to the management of funds and positions before and after the Spring Festival.
Li Yanjie, general manager of CITIC Construction Investment Futures Energy and Chemical Industry Division, told reporters that on Wednesday, EIA will release the latest monthly short-term energy outlook report. The market is more concerned about EIA's adjustment of global oil demand growth, production and oil price expectations in 2021, while IEA and OPEC will also release the latest monthly crude oil market reports on the first day of the holiday. The impact of the forecasts of the three major institutions on the oil market is mainly reflected in two aspects: first, in terms of market sentiment, if all three major institutions significantly lower their forecasts for oil demand this year, it will suppress market optimism, otherwise it will be boosted. Second, the forecast of the crude oil market in the OPEC monthly report will serve as a reference for the alliance's decision on production plans in the future. The current rise in oil prices is mainly based on additional production cuts in Saudi Arabia to provide a two-month buffer for the oil market to rebalance. If the demand growth rate is significantly lowered again, it may make it more difficult for the OPEC+ ministerial meeting in early March to reach an agreement on the production plan, but the impact in this regard is not expected to show in the short term.
It is reported that from the adjustment of the latest balance sheet of the three major institutions in January, the adjustment on the demand side of crude oil is small, mainly reflected in the reduction of crude oil supply by 803000 barrels per day in the first quarter. The 13th OPEC+ Ministerial Conference decided that the OPEC10 countries represented by Saudi Arabia will maintain their crude oil production in January from February to March, and the monthly increase of non-OPEC countries will be limited to 75000 b / d, which is far lower than the upper limit of 500000 b / d per month mentioned in the December meeting of 2010. the recent OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee meeting on February 3 further affirmed the positive significance of this preliminary production reduction constraint. The exchange rate for OPEC+ production reduction reached 101% in January. OPEC crude oil exports fell 661000 barrels per day, or 3.4%, from December last year. The relative restraint in OPEC+ production and outbound supply has further contributed to the recent optimism in the crude oil market. "the monthly reports of the three major institutions are expected to have limited adjustments to the supply side, and they can focus on whether demand-side forecasts can be raised after the improvement in the epidemic in Europe and the United States has led to a significant decline in new confirmed cases around the world. this expectation, when confirmed, will further boost the performance of oil prices from the logic on the demand side." China Investment Anxin Futures Energy Chief analyst Gao Mingyu said.
"recently, investors are also more concerned about whether Biden's $1.9 trillion bailout plan can be landed as expected. On the 2nd, US Senate Democrats have taken action to remove procedural obstacles to advancing the plan, putting the bill into the fast track. But the final result still needs to be passed by the Senate. If the fiscal stimulus package is not as large as expected, it will weaken market risk appetite, then oil prices will also face the risk of correction." Li Yanjie said.
The above interviewees believe that at present, the crude oil market is still in the upward trend of the price center under the background of removing storage, and the recovery of the service industry in 2020 is not as good as that of the construction industry and manufacturing industry. the performance of the crude oil market with stronger consumer attributes is also far lower than that of industrial products with stronger industrial attributes such as black and non-ferrous materials, and there is no obviously overvalued crude oil price or continue the trend of strong oscillation. We need to pay attention to the progress of the new round of Iran nuclear agreement in the United States, and the return of Iranian crude oil is expected to become the main risk point for the downward adjustment of the crude oil market in the later stage.
Agricultural products: follow USDA monthly report and MPOB monthly report
The Spring Festival is coming, and there are only three trading days left before the festival. there are varieties closely related to agricultural products, such as soybean, soybean oil, soybean meal, corn, cotton and white sugar.
Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, there are three main points for attention on agricultural products: first, the USDA report will be released in the early morning of February 10, paying attention to the market fluctuations after the release of the report; second, the dollar index continues to rise, putting pressure on commodity futures. After the Biden administration takes office, a series of stimulus policies will be gradually realized, the certainty of repairing the fundamentals of the US economy will be strengthened, the latest interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve will not further relax the currency, and the probability of a sustained rise in the dollar index will increase. The dollar as the pricing currency of global commodities, the rise of the dollar index will put pressure on commodity prices. Third, the low tide of funds, pre-festival CFTC beans non-commercial net long position has been divided, the early long single in the continuous adjustment, so we should pay attention to the holiday period CFTC non-commercial net long position whether there are more long withdrawal, which will have a vital impact on the market trend. " Green Dahua futures agricultural products senior analyst Liu Jin said.
Shi Lihong, an oil analyst at CITIC Construction Investment Futures, told reporters that for the USDA monthly report, the market on average expects USDA to reduce its end-of-term inventory of US beans in 2020 to 123 million bushels, down from 140 million bushels reported in January. However, under the good export and crushing demand of American beans, more institutions have already seen the final carry-over inventory of 2020 swap soybeans in the United States to 50 million-100 million bushels in 2021, and it is expected that the February report will give little chance of surpassing expectations. Against the backdrop of last month's continuing drought, the industry expects Brazilian soybean production in the USDA February report to be 132.5 million tons, down 500000 tons from the previous month, while Argentina soybean production is expected to be 47.7 million tons, down 300000 tons from the previous month, but the improvement is expected to be limited. The USDA monthly report is difficult to give a better-than-expected surprise that drives Meidou to continue to rise, and even if the report is overall positive, it does not rule out the possibility of periodic positive results, as the South American soybean harvest continues to advance, the price of US beans may be suppressed.
For the MPOB monthly report, current Bloomberg and CIMB estimates for Malaysian palm oil stocks at the end of January are 1.21 million tons and 1.36 million tons respectively, of which the production and export estimates are basically the same and in line with the mainstream, with differences mainly on imports, Bloomberg's 110000 tons and CIMB's 280000 tons. As the time of the tax increase in Indonesia is on December 10 last year, there is little incentive for Indonesia to move the treasury out of the country after the tax increase, so we tend to think that the inventory transfer from Indonesia to Malaysia from November to December last year will not last until January this year. Malaysian palm oil inventory growth is expected to be relatively limited at the end of January, but this has yet to be verified by monthly report data on February 10. If Malaysian palm oil inventory growth is limited at the end of January, although there are no unexpected surprises, ultra-low inventories are expected to continue to give strong support to the horse market trend; if stocks recover more than expected, the price inflection point of palm oil may come early with marginal bearish and mood changes. " Shi Lihong said.
As these two important reports are released before the festival, the occurrence of major events at a fixed time during the Spring Festival has been greatly reduced, but some events at a fixed time may also become clearer over time, such as drought and per unit yield in the main soybean producing areas in Argentina. It is understood that the sharp rise in US beans in February 2018 was driven by a severe production reduction caused by the drought in Argentina, which directly led to a sharp rise in soybean meal on the first day after the festival, as well as a fall in oil and fat under empty oil meal arbitrage. Shi Lihong believes that at a time when the excellent and good rate of Argentine soybeans is at an all-time low and there will continue to be less rainfall in the next two weeks, the risk of serious production reduction in Argentina has not been eliminated, and Dalian soybean meal and soybean oil may still repeat the mistakes made after the 2018 festival.
In Shi Lihong's view, after the festival is approaching late February, for the oil and oil market, the scheduled production of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina needs to be paid more attention to, as well as the recovery of palm oil production in the producing area. In addition, the USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 18-19 also needs attention, which will estimate the planting area of major crops in the United States in 202112022. Due to the strong demand and prices of American beans and American corn, the market expects that the acreage of American beans and American corn will recover significantly, which means that the fallow area will decline at a high level. At present, the mainstream of the market will put the planting area of Meidou 2021 / 2022 at about 90 million acres, but even according to the per unit yield of 52 bushels / acre, it is difficult to effectively improve the carry-over inventory in the new season. If the acreage is not as expected, Meidou may launch another round to push the market higher.
"through the statistics of the 5-year historical data, we found that the amplitude of the oil meal during the Spring Festival and the opening amplitude on the first day after the festival found that the amplitude of the oil meal in the festival and the first day after the festival was larger, and the amplitude of the first day of Dalian soybean meal in 2020 was as high as 2.73%. Jump in the air and open 2.53% low. After the festival, for the agricultural product market, the market situation will be relatively clear, and the South American soybean harvest progress, shipping progress, and market mentality will all enter a relatively clear stage. At that time, the certainty of judging the direction of the new round of market will be relatively high. It is suggested that the original position can be closed and enjoy the festival with peace of mind. " Shi Lihong said.
As the cotton spinning industry enters the holiday mode, the sentiment in the futures market is dominant. Last week, the market worried about liquidity led to a decline in the stock market, cotton also suffered several waves of sharp falls, and recently the stock market ushered in an intra-day reversal, the commodity market is more red than green, and cotton led the rise in the agricultural sector.
Wu Xinyang, a cotton analyst at CITIC Construction Investment Futures, believes that the good news is always based on good fundamentals. The essence of the rise in cotton is attributed to the fundamental background of low inventory in the futures discount superimposed industry. Years later, with the industry-driven recovery, spring ploughing brings weather hype, and there is a lot of room for imagination above cotton. There are still several trading days before the Spring Festival, and after the insurance is raised by the exchange, the range of price fluctuations will also be further increased. Many orders of cotton can continue to be held, waiting for the opportunity after the festival.
Non-ferrous metals: the risk of uncertainty mainly comes from the macro side.
The reporter learned that the current non-ferrous plate in the demand off-season and domestic liquidity tightening and other factors under the pressure of downward adjustment, but the lower support is strong. The slowdown in the pace of domestic manufacturing expansion in January, announced earlier this month, and resistance to the addition of a new round of US bail-out bills, once again cooled the enthusiasm of the market bulls. In order to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity in the market, since January 27, the central bank has resumed a large amount of investment, and the scope of funds has eased somewhat.
According to Li Quanchong, a non-ferrous researcher at British University Futures, from a fundamental point of view, with the approach of the Spring Festival in China, enterprises have stopped work one after another, and downstream stock preparation has basically ended, resulting in weakening demand and weak operation of non-ferrous prices. However, the supply-side interference factors lead to the tightening of raw material supply, which forms a strong support for the price of non-ferrous metals. In particular, tin and nickel, the main producing countries of overseas raw materials were affected by the epidemic, production or shipping encountered obstacles, resulting in a decline in domestic imports, a tight supply of raw materials, tin and nickel increased significantly in January. Recently, the transportation of copper and copper mines from Peru, Chile and other countries has been disrupted, resulting in a decline in imports and a continuous decline in inventories in bonded areas, supporting copper prices. In addition, low inventories and no significant accumulation of stocks also provide bottom support for metal prices.
According to Zhan Dapeng, director of non-ferrous metals at Everbright Futures, the proportion of non-ferrous downstream processing enterprises that do not have holidays and continue production during the Spring Festival this year has increased compared with previous years, and these enterprises will have the action of preparing stocks before the festival. especially for commodities that have been adjusted by a large margin. There has always been a peak of non-ferrous accumulation before and after the Spring Festival, but the pre-festival reserve will make the total extent of non-ferrous accumulation this year lower than expected, which will give psychological support to investors. However, there will be a mismatch between production and demand in the processing industry, that is, the production before and during the festival needs to be digested after the festival, and it is still unknown whether the post-holiday demand can be started on time according to the current epidemic prevention standards. this means that part of the accumulated stock of non-ferrous raw materials is converted into the inventory of finished products downstream in advance. Due to the mismatch between supply and demand, if the pre-festival market is optimistic, it is bound to become a negative factor after the festival.
"the uncertain risks in the market mainly come from the macro level, and the overall improvement of the overseas epidemic situation will be conducive to the gradual recovery of the economies of various countries, but affected by factors such as virus variation, epidemic prevention and control measures, and vaccine delivery, the development of the epidemic is still uncertain. The progress of the US bailout bill is also constantly disturbing market sentiment. " Li Quanchong said that in addition, the Biden administration's attitude towards China is also the focus of the market. On the whole, the pre-festival market atmosphere is cautious. The last period of the notice has been issued to increase the non-ferrous plate during the Spring Festival limit and margin ratio, investors should pay attention to positions and margin occupation. In view of the great uncertainty of holidays, it is suggested that investors should reasonably control their positions according to their own conditions.
"the impact of the epidemic on the country lies more in the uncertainty of resuming work after the holiday, and whether post-holiday demand will be delayed is a question that bullish investors should consider before the festival. From the comparison of epidemic control and economic recovery at home and abroad, the position of non-ferrous buy and sell inside will be relatively safe until after the festival. With regard to the Biden government stimulus, financial markets have been trading for some time, and we should pay attention to the final landing and timing of the policy at a later stage. In addition, if US stocks fall sharply during the Spring Festival, it will have a second impact on the liquidity of global financial markets, but the probability of this event is also on the low side. " Zhan Dapeng said.
In the view of the above interviewees, various parts of the country advocate "celebrating the Spring Festival on the spot" this year, which will be conducive to the resumption of work and production after the festival, thus driving a pick-up in demand, but we need to pay attention to whether the epidemic prevention and control policies in various places after the festival will have a certain impact on employees' return to work. In addition, attention should also be paid to the inventory problems of smelting enterprises, holiday and post-holiday accumulation, the epidemic situation in overseas major raw material producing countries, and the possible interference to raw material production and transportation caused by epidemic prevention and control measures.
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