According to a report in Chile's third Page Times on December 22, 36 people were infected with novel coronavirus after an outbreak broke out at the Antarctic base in Chile. The Chilean army agency says the base has now been thoroughly disinfected.
According to the latest data from World Health Organization (WHO) 's website, as of 16:13 central European time on the 22nd (23:13 in Beijing), the number of global confirmed cases increased by 524065 from the previous day to 76250431, and the number of deaths increased by 8775 to 1699230.
According to statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 16:25 EDT on the 22nd (05:25 on the 23rd in Beijing), the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States has exceeded 18.16 million, reaching 18168777, and the number of deaths has exceeded 322000, reaching 322611.
Britain will impose a level four blockade on more areas from December 26. Germany has extended its travel ban on Britain until January 6 next year.
On the 22nd local time, the Yves Institute for Economic Research, a German think-tank, the Swiss Institute for Economic Research and the Italian National Institute of Statistics jointly released an economic outlook report, sharply lowering the euro zone economic forecast.
Britain and Europe still have a chance to reach a Brexit agreement before the deadline, so that the British Parliament can approve the agreement before 23:00 GMT on December 31st.
Biden said novel coronavirus's relief measures are a sign of cross-party cooperation, but they are far from perfect. The United States needs more money to fight the novel coronavirus epidemic and needs to extend unemployment benefits. And said his family would not have a Christmas party in 2020. He said it would take several months for all Americans to be vaccinated against COVID-19.
In the early hours of this morning, the three major indexes of US stocks closed mixed, with the Nasdaq closing up 0.51%, a record high, the S & P 500 index down 0.21%, and the Dow down 0.67%.
WTI crude oil February futures closed down 95 cents, or 1.98 percent, to settle at $47.02 a barrel. Brent crude futures fell below $50 a barrel, down 1.6 per cent a day.
Novel coronavirus's variation has caused market concern, and the domestic commodity market is now falling.
Yesterday, there was a general decline in the domestic commodity market. Among them, the main contract of No. 20 glue fell 7.45% to close at 10060 yuan / ton; the main contract of Shanghai glue fell 7.11% to close at 13905 yuan / ton; the main contract of fuel oil and crude oil fell 6.56% and 6.37% respectively; the earlier rising varieties such as thermal coal and iron ore also changed their strength and turned around. In response, market participants said that the decline in the commodity market was more caused by the change in market sentiment caused by the "mutation of the British virus". Although it was supported by the US $900 billion fiscal rescue bill and a $1.4 trillion regular government budget in yesterday's trading session, it is also difficult to correct the market weakness.
According to a reporter from Futures Daily, Britain reported to World Health Organization (WHO) on December 14 that a new variant of novel coronavirus had been found through virus gene sequencing. Preliminary analysis shows that the variant is more likely to spread from person to person, with an estimated 40% increase in infectivity and a 0.4% increase in the transmission index, which is between 1.5mi 1.7 and 70%. To this end, the United Kingdom announced that the level of epidemic prevention and control in some areas such as London will be raised to level 4, the highest level. In addition, in order to prevent the further spread of the mutated strain, a number of countries have suspended flights from the United Kingdom.
"the concern of the market mainly comes from two aspects: first, whether the mutation of the virus will cause another outbreak of the virus, resulting in a global large-scale blockade; and second, whether the existing vaccine is effective against this mutated virus." Zhu Ziyue, an analyst at Hongyuan Futures Energy, said that for the first problem, we should start with the virus itself. at present, because of the limited clinical cases, it is impossible to judge the severe illness rate and mortality rate after the virus mutation. the 70% increase in infectivity now worries the market, but this result is only based on modeling and has not been confirmed by experiments. At present, this mutated strain is mainly found in the United Kingdom, with a small number of cases in the Netherlands, Australia and Denmark, but not in Asia and the United States. According to the available data and situation, it is expected that there is little chance of entering the global blockade immediately. However, if there is evidence in later experiments and clinical practice that the mutated strain not only increases the transmission rate, but also causes an increase in severe illness and mortality, then a large-scale blockade is inevitable. For the second question, the two main vaccines, Pfizer and Moderna, have been proven to be more than 90 per cent effective. The core technology of both vaccines is to generate immunity by identifying Spike proteins on the virus's surface, and the mutation has strained the market mainly because it involves eight Spike genes, but experts say the variant is not enough to evade vaccination.
"generally speaking, for the emergence of this mutated virus, there is no need to enter a state of excessive panic prematurely, but we need to maintain a high degree of vigilance. In fact, after the Asian market closed, the European stock market has rebounded, and the market has not lost its mind. " Zhu Ziyue said.
The epidemic situation in Europe is urgent, and the international oil price is adjusted.
In recent days, the renewed emergency in Europe has triggered a rise in global systemic risk aversion, with crude oil, the king of commodities, bearing the brunt. In fact, in response to the progress made by novel coronavirus's vaccine, international oil prices have risen for seven consecutive weeks, rising by almost 40 per cent. This time, novel coronavirus's mutation has increased its infectivity by 70%. A total blockade has been imposed in most parts of Britain, and countries have restricted British flights. A new round of travel restrictions may restrict the recovery of global oil demand. Once again triggered concerns about later global crude oil demand, international oil prices are under pressure this week.
Yang an, head of energy and chemical research and development in Haitong Futures, believes that the blockade caused by the epidemic will directly lead to a decline in transportation oil use, which will directly affect crude oil demand, and then the economy will drag down crude oil demand, which will once again have an impact on oil prices. Therefore, the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on commodities, the most seriously injured is the crude oil and oil products market. The regional blockade caused by the mutation of the novel coronavirus strain in the United Kingdom has once again hurt the demand for crude oil, and the current affected consumption is still difficult to measure, but due to the experience of the negative factors of the previous blockade, the market immediately had a clear reaction to this. Yang an said that the British novel coronavirus strain mutation posed a severe test to the effectiveness of the vaccine. Although World Health Organization (WHO) said that there was no evidence that the vaccine was ineffective, the virus mutation incident made it difficult to dispel market worries. After a brief relaxation, financial markets fell sharply again on the afternoon of December 22nd, with crude oil prices bearing the brunt.
Recently, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that with the rebound in global demand, Russia believes it is necessary to gradually increase crude oil production without disrupting market balance and triggering oversupply. In this regard, Yang an said that at present, the supply and demand of the crude oil market is tight, and the inventory accumulated in the first half of the year has been digested. Under the background of optimistic market sentiment, it is acceptable for the supply side to appropriately increase production in the market. In fact, a small increase in OPEC+ production under the framework of production reduction did not lower oil prices, but the key is to increase production at the right time, and raising the topic of increasing production in the current fragile market mood is obviously not conducive to the stability of oil prices.
In Yang an's view, it is almost certain that oil prices are likely to enter the adjustment stage, and the core focus of the market is the development of the epidemic after the virus mutation and the effectiveness of the vaccine. "if there is no good news, the market will be more worried, which will increase the decline in oil prices. The systemic decline in domestic commodities on Tuesday afternoon further aggravated market pessimism. In the short term, it is relatively certain that the center of gravity of crude oil and Nenghua plate will continue to shift down, and the pace of decline will be disturbed by factors such as the epidemic. " He said.
Market sentiment superimposed demand drag, rubber market price plummeted
The discovery of a new crown mutant in the UK has sparked a heated debate in the market, which has also affected the commodity market. Rubber was hit hard yesterday, with the Japan large Edition Exchange saying that rubber contracts closed 6.8 per cent lower at 231.2 yen / kg in May, the biggest one-day drop since early November. Domestically, the main contract of Shanghai glue fell 7.11% to close at 13905 yuan / ton.
Worries about novel coronavirus's mutant strain made investors into risk aversion mode and sold their positions to settle profits one after another. In addition, the rubber market is also a drag on demand because Shandong and other places have launched a level 1 emergency response to the red alert for heavy pollution.
"in fact, environmental production restrictions mainly affect the operating rate of tire factories. As of December 17, the operating rate of semi-steel tyres was 60.45%, and that of all-steel tyres was 61.79%, which was the lowest since June this year, down 10% and 12% respectively from the same period in 2019, and the overall level was on the low side for five years. From this point of view, the impact of environmental protection on production restrictions is relatively great. " 'but the impact is more short-term, phased and even seasonal, 'Mr. Zhu said. From the point of view of demand, winter itself is the off-season of tire demand, and the operating rate will decline. In addition, the shortage of export containers affects export orders and is also a drag on short-term demand.
For the future, Zhu Ziyue said that the rubber market can be analyzed from two time dimensions. "before the Spring Festival, China is in a shutdown period, the extent of further accumulation of RU warehouse receipts is limited, and precipitation in overseas producing areas is relatively abundant, but it has not exceeded the 2016 level and has recently decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and terminal demand is gradually weakening, showing as a whole strong supply and weak demand. After the Spring Festival, the domestic opening period may face the disturbance of weather, diseases and insect pests and other factors, the downstream construction demand resumes, and it is expected that the supply is weak and the demand is strong. In addition, we should focus on the injection effect of the vaccine, injection progress, as well as virus mutation and so on. The price driver in 2020 is mainly driven by the epidemic, and the market in 2021 will also be driven by the epidemic. But in addition to the epidemic itself, we should also pay attention to the disturbance of fundamental factors. " She said.
The inflection point of the short-term market may have appeared, and the black market is going down together.
In the view of Sheng Wenyu, head of iron and steel building materials research at Jinxin Futures Research Institute, black commodities fell yesterday, on the one hand, there was a systemic risk; on the other hand, black varieties generally rose too much recently. "near the end of the New year, it is an indisputable fact that the demand for steel will be weaker. The sharp rise in spot steel prices over the weekend reflects the release of bullish sentiment, but there is the possibility that things will be reversed at the extreme. The main factors for the downward trend in the future are: first, the market concern caused by the escalation of the epidemic; second, the price correction brought about by the seasonal weakening of steel demand; and third, the sharp rise in prices fully reflects the good expectations for next year. If many parties concentrate on withdrawal, it will cause negative feedback to kill and fall quickly. " He said.
In Sheng Wenyu's view, the sharp correction in iron ore yesterday mainly reflects the change in market sentiment. Overseas outbreaks will be gradually brought under control with the large-scale launch of vaccines, the general direction of global economic recovery next year remains unchanged, and the medium-term expectation of significant growth in overseas demand for iron ore next year has not been reversed.
According to the world pig iron production data released by the World Steel Association in October, we can see that the progress of resuming production in overseas steel mills is slightly higher than expected. We have estimated the world's pig iron production except China, and overseas pig iron production will be reduced by nearly 52 million tons in 2020 compared with the same period last year. If the vaccine is effective, overseas pig iron production is expected to return to the 2019 level of 70 per cent in 2021, which could drive demand for 58 million tonnes of iron ore. Vale's return to production next year is expected to increase by 10 million to 30 million tons, significantly lower than previously expected. " Mr. Sheng said that given the concentration of global iron ore resources into China this year, it could crowd out some of the iron ore shipped to China if overseas demand recovers quickly next year. Under this expectation, the supply and demand pattern of iron ore in China may once again appear an obvious gap that supply falls short of demand. Therefore, unless the harm of the variant virus is extremely strong, or the resumption of production by overseas steel mills is significantly lower than expected, the good expectation of iron ore supply and demand next year will not be reversed.
However, it is worth noting that although the medium-and long-term expectations of iron ore for the better have not changed, the inflection point of the short-term market may have emerged. "although the fundamentals are expected to be good, but this round of black plate higher-than-expected rise and continuity is too strong, the characteristics of self-reinforcement in the later stage is obvious, after emotional cooling, there is a high probability of entering a longer period of adjustment." Sheng Wenyu said.
"at present, in addition to coke spot due to supply contraction and short supply, iron ore and steel prices are a bit 'empty fat'." Sheng Wenyu said that it is understood that the steel mills will choose the post-settlement model this year, and the anchor of the winter storage price will be gone, so there will be a small quantity but a sharp rise in prices when the demand is close to the off-season. After the over-excited market sentiment cools, the correction in steel prices may also exceed expectations because there is no anchor, which is where we need to focus on at a later stage.
The pressure of policy regulation and control has not been reduced, and initial results have been achieved in ensuring the supply and price of thermal coal.
Under the drag of market pessimism, thermal coal, which had a strong early performance, also showed a pullback. In this regard, a German futures thermal coal analyst Zeng Xiang said that the pullback of thermal coal is also driven by market sentiment. At present, the fundamentals are still strong, the transaction price in the spot market is still very strong, the inventory in the middle and lower reaches is also low, and the state of high daily consumption in the lower reaches has not changed. And there will be a cold wave at the end of the month, and it is difficult for fundamentals to weaken in the short term.
"taken together, the main reasons for the sharp drop in thermal coal plate prices yesterday are: first, the production capacity of the producing area has further increased, Zhungeer Banner has liberalized the restrictions on coal control tickets, and open-pit minerals can be released. Second, novel coronavirus's new strain is out of control in the UK, and global industrial products have fallen sharply, driving down thermal coal prices. " Zeng Xiang thinks.
In the early stage, thermal coal prices have been high all the way. In order to stabilize the market, the state has done a lot of work in ensuring supply and stabilizing coal prices, and the pressure of policy regulation and control has not been reduced. Zeng Xiang further introduced that in terms of origin, additional coal control tickets will be issued to increase production. In the aspect of railway transportation, coordinate the wagon plan of the railway bureau and give priority to ensuring the transportation of thermal coal in key enterprises. In terms of imports, we will increase the import quota of 20 million tons of non-Australian coal and urge the Customs to speed up customs clearance. At the same time, increase the number of signatures signed by the long Association next year, so that the Association can further play the role of thermal coal price ballast stone. At present, the production capacity of the main domestic production areas has basically reached a historically high production capacity, and the main transport channels, such as the Daqin Line and the Mengji Line, are also in a state of full development, giving priority to ensuring the smooth transportation of thermal coal.
However, in Zeng Xiang's view, although the market fell more yesterday, but the short-term fundamentals have not changed, the real reversal of the supply and demand structure is expected to be in January next year.
"the following are the main factors of concern: first, the change in daily consumption after the cold wave; second, the coal mine production capacity and the amount of imported coal in the new year; third, whether the coastal port and terminal inventory will accumulate or go to the warehouse; and fourth, whether the daily consumption will decline ahead of schedule because of the epidemic before the Spring Festival." Zeng Xiang said.
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