SMM9 March 24: the overnight dollar index rose again to above the 94 mark, with non-ferrous metals generally under pressure. in early trading today, the LME metal market was green across the board, with Lun Zinc and Lunxi falling nearly 0.6%, Lun Aluminum, Lun lead and Lun Copper down nearly 0.4%, and Lunni nearly 0.1%. The domestic market fell across the board, with Shanghai Aluminum down nearly 3.4%, Shanghai Tin down nearly 3%, Shanghai Copper and Shanghai Zinc down nearly 1.7%, Shanghai lead down nearly 0.9%, and Shanghai Nickel down nearly 0.7%.
Copper, announced at night that the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in September was 53.5 higher than the previous value, a 20-month high. The US manufacturing sector continued to improve, and the dollar index rebounded to above the 94 mark at night, and copper futures fell under pressure. At present, the new economic stimulus package is still deadlocked, the market expects the government to introduce more fiscal stimulus measures, and the macro mood is still pessimistic, limiting the room for copper futures to recover to some extent. It is expected to be 6520-6580 US dollars / ton for Lun Copper and 50400-50800 yuan / ton for Shanghai Copper today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Replenishment of copper before the festival is not good. Spot transactions of copper are limited during the light period of copper recovery.
In terms of lead, overnight lead was affected by the general decline in the metal and received three consecutive negative results, so we should be on guard against the strong rebound of the US dollar on the international lead price. Shanghai walked out of the big V trend overnight, paying attention to the stock preparation situation of the demand side before the double festival, and the short-term lead price is expected to fluctuate. The price of lead in SMM1# is expected to fall by 50-100 yuan per ton today.
"[SMM lead Internal Morning meeting record] lead consolidation downstream of Shanghai lead trading is light
In terms of zinc, Shanghai zinc was disturbed by macro emotions overnight, and Shanghai zinc also interfered with the downside. However, domestic smelters enter winter storage ahead of time, superimposed some domestic mines may enter seasonal shutdown in October, raw material supply may be further tightened, with TC downgrade smelter profits narrow, follow-up supply-side support still exists, it is expected that there is still room for zinc prices to rise after macro sentiment stabilizes.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Zinc prices are still expected to rise after the supply of raw materials may be further tightened and stabilized macroscopically.
In terms of black, thread rose nearly 0.3%, hot coil rose nearly 0.3%, stainless steel rose nearly 2.2%, coke fell nearly 2.1%, coking coal fell nearly 1.5%, iron ore fell nearly 0.2%. In terms of hot coil, the SMM iron and steel team investigated the production limit in Tangshan this time. Although the production limit is not directly limited to the blast furnace, it is meant to be cut off from the source, resulting in local steel mills having to reduce the output of finished wood appropriately. This is undoubtedly a more substantial benefit to the current success. In particular, after the southward passage of northern coil is closed, the supply pressure of northern coil increases gradually, and the production restriction will ease the supply pressure of northern coil to a certain extent. At the same time, Anshan Iron and Steel, Benxi Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. increased coil overhaul in October, which will also ease the supply pressure in the north. Therefore, it is expected that the follow-up spot price of northern coil will have a certain support.
[summary of SMM Steel Morning meeting] Tangshan Environmental Protection production restriction relieves the supply pressure in the north and supports the price.
Crude oil fell nearly 0.8 per cent in the previous period, while US crude oil futures edged higher on Wednesday as US crude and refined oil inventories fell last week, according to (EIA) data from the US Energy Information Administration, although concerns about the still-raging novel coronavirus epidemic limited gains. Us crude oil, gasoline and distillate stocks all fell last week, according to data released by EIA on Wednesday. Analysts pointed out that while the EIA data provided support, concerns about the COVID-19 epidemic and a new round of blockades curbed the rise in oil prices. Demand-side factors and global economic conditions have a great impact on the oil market.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 1.4%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 4.6%. Comex futures closed at a two-month low on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened and investors waited for further responses from major central banks in times of economic uncertainty. Gold prices are currently being affected by the trend of the dollar, which continues to be under pressure from a stronger dollar. The dollar index hit an eight-week high, undermining gold's attractiveness to investors holding other currencies.
As of 09:40, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
