Wu Hui [Nickel-Cobalt-Lithium Summit] New Energy vehicle and Battery Market Research and Prospect are optimistic about the Chinese Market in the next five years

At the 2020 (Fifth) China International Nickel-Cobalt-Lithium Summit Forum and the China International Nickel-Cobalt Industry chain Summit Forum held by SMM, Wu Hui, general manager of the Research Department of Yiwei Economic Research Institute, brought the "New Energy vehicle and Battery Market Research and Prospect".

He said Europe's carbon standards and subsidies are expected to stimulate the growth of new energy vehicles in Europe again. At present, the carbon emissions of major automobile companies in the world are higher than the target value, and the trend of electrification transformation is obvious. For every zero-emission vehicle or low-emission vehicle sold by a car company in 2022, it will be counted as 2, 1.67 and 1.33 vehicles respectively when calculating the average CO2 emission level of the car company as a whole. For these three years (2020-2022), the upper limit of super points for each car company will be set at 7.5g/km.

In order to stimulate the consumption of new energy vehicles, Germany decided to extend the subsidy for the purchase of new energy vehicles that had been planned to withdraw in 2022 until 2025, and to increase the amount of subsidy for bicycles. China has extended its subsidy policy, which originally ended in 2020, for two years, and the double points target has been set in advance.

Market performance

The European market has always occupied an important position in the global automobile industry.

Since 2013, car sales in Europe have increased from 16 million to nearly 19 million, making it the world's largest car sales market after China.

The European market has maintained a growing trend against the backdrop of declining car markets in China and the United States.

European market penetration is far ahead in the field of new energy vehicles.

The comprehensive policy power of carbon emission regulations, taxes and subsidies has enabled the European market to start high growth in the second half of 19 years and high growth in new energy penetration in Europe for 20 years. Under the epidemic, European penetration has reversed the trend. From January to April 2020, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the European market reached 6.3%, much higher than in China and the United States.

The CR4 share of new energy vehicles is gradually increasing.

Volkswagen Group has sold more than 10 million vehicles in the past five years, showing an upward trend year by year, with a market share of about 12%. From 2017 to 2019, the total sales were 1078, 1090 and 10.96 million respectively, with a market share of 11.3%, 11.5% and 12.0%, respectively. In the field of new energy vehicles, the group's intra-group penetration has risen to 1.12% and will continue to rise in the future.

The platform strategy will further promote the market-oriented development of electric vehicles.

Volkswagen predicts that in its life cycle, Volkswagen will sell 5.669 million MEB vehicles in Europe and China, and Volkswagen plans to sell 3 million electric vehicles with a penetration rate of 3 million.

The installed capacity of China's power battery market has declined sharply month-on-month, but with the gradual control of the epidemic in China, the month-on-month decline is decreasing.

In 2020, the domestic epidemic situation of Q1 is more serious than that of overseas, and the installed capacity of domestic battery enterprises is more serious, while the impact of overseas enterprises such as LG Chemical is relatively small. But looking forward to Q2 in 2020, with the outbreak of overseas epidemic, the market share of domestic power battery companies is expected to pick up.

Although lithium iron phosphate currently has a cost advantage, the proportion of installed capacity continues to decline, and the share of cylinders has rebounded due to the impact of LG supply to Tesla.

Based on this, we will reduce the sales of new energy vehicles in China to about 1.1 million in 2020, but looking forward to the next five years, we are still optimistic about China's new energy vehicle market.

With the exception of China, the recovery of Europe and the United States after the epidemic will become an important global market for the sale of new energy vehicles. It is expected that with the superposition of small batteries and energy storage batteries, the global demand for lithium-ion batteries will be close to 900Gwh.

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