Macro Roundup (Jul 13)

SHANGHAI, Jul 13 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last weekend and what is expected today.

Stocks on Wall Street were mostly higher on Friday, while the dollar slipped on Friday, as market sentiment was supported hopes of a potential vaccine for the novel coronavirus that outweighed concerns about the surge in infections in the US and around the world.

The US currency posted its largest weekly percentage loss against a basket of major currencies in a month.

Gilead Sciences said its coronavirus treatment candidate, remdesivir, was associated with an improvement in clinical recovery and a 62% reduction in the risk of mortality compared with standard of care. Meanwhile, BioNTech’s CEO said the company’s coronavirus vaccine candidate could be ready for approval by December.

The US has reported more than 60,000 new cases daily for three days in a row now, bringing the national total to more than 3 million cases, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Oil prices climbed more than 2% on Friday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) bumped up its 2020 demand forecast but record-breaking new coronavirus cases in the US tempered expectations for a fast recovery in fuel consumption.

The Paris-based IEA raised its demand forecast to 92.1 million barrels per day (bpd), up 400,000 bpd from its outlook last month, citing a smaller-than-expected second-quarter decline.

Baker Hughes on Friday reported that the number of active US rigs drilling for oil edged down by 4 to 181 in the week ended July 10. That followed a decline of 3 oil rigs a week earlier. The number of oil rigs has not seen an increase since the week ended March 13. The total active US rig count, meanwhile, fell by 5 to 258, according to Baker Hughes.

Gold fell on Friday as gains in US equities trimmed flows into bullion, which was still on track for a fifth straight weekly gain after soaring to its highest in nearly nine years last week.

Nonferrous metals traded sharply higher on Friday. On the LME, nickel surged 2.7% to lead the way higher, aluminium jumped 2.4%, copper soared 2.1%, zinc advanced 1.9% and lead rose 1.3%, while tin bucked the uptrend with a 0.3% loss.

On the SHFE, copper soared 2.8% to the biggest gainer in Friday night trading, zinc and lead climbed 2.4%, aluminium rose 2.2%, nickel advanced 1.8% and tin was up nearly 1%.

The US Labor Department said on Friday its producer price index for final demand dropped 0.2% last month after rebounding 0.4% in May. In the 12 months through June, the PPI declined 0.8% after decreasing 0.8% in May. US producer prices unexpectedly fell in June as the economy battles depressed demand amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

In Europe, markets across the continent received a boost after data showed Italian industrial production jumped 42.1% in May from the previous month, as the country emerged from lockdown, outstripping the forecast of 22.8%.

French industry output climbed by 19.6% in May, surpassing economist expectations of a 15.1% rise. France only began lifting its comparatively strict lockdown measures on May 11.

German exports rebounded in May, albeit less than expected, as demand warmed up amid an easing of restrictions to contain the coronavirus.

German exports rose 9.0% in May from April in adjusted terms, statistics office Destatis said Thursday. Economists had forecast a 13.5% increase in exports in adjusted terms, according to a Dow Jones Newswires poll. In April, exports plunged by 24% compared with March amid the pandemic, the steepest monthly decline since the data was first published in 1990.

In May, imports grew 3.5% on the month, after dropping 5.3% in March and 16.6% in April. The figures account for seasonal swings and calendar effects.

Chinese banks extended 1.81 trillion yuan ($258.23 billion) in new yuan loans in June, up 22% from May and slightly exceeding analysts’ expectations, according to data released by the People’s Bank of China on Friday.

Analysts had predicted new yuan loans would rise to 1.80 trillion yuan in June, up from 1.48 trillion yuan in the previous month and compared with 1.66 trillion yuan a year earlier.

China is boosting credit and easing policy to get the economy humming again after a sharp coronavirus-induced downturn in the first quarter.

Broad M2 money supply in June grew 11.1% from a year earlier, central bank data showed, in line with the expectations and the same pace as in May.

Outstanding yuan loans grew 13.2% from a year earlier, compared with 13.2% growth in May. Analysts had expected the growth rate to hold steady.