High investment in ternary materials and high nickel NCM811/NCA "locomotive effect" is obvious.

SMM News: in recent years, under the strong promotion of national policy, China's new energy industry has developed rapidly. It is expected that the domestic new energy vehicle market will continue to maintain high growth in the next few years, and the number of new energy vehicles may exceed 5 million in 2023. In order to alleviate consumers' anxiety about the mileage of new energy vehicles, the development of power batteries to the ternary direction is an important trend. at present, ternary materials have become the cathode materials with the fastest growth rate and the largest proportion of shipments.

In this context, manufacturers are increasingly enthusiastic about the investment of ternary materials. Recently, the website of Meishan Municipal people's Government announced that Wanhua Chemical has an annual output of 10,000 tons of lithium battery ternary material project in Meishan, Sichuan, with a total planned investment of 1.16 billion yuan. It is worth noting that in April this year, the controlling shareholder of Zhuoneng lithium battery changed, finally Wanhua Chemical Holdings, Wanhua Chemical acquired 100% stake in Zhuoneng lithium battery; and two years ago, the first phase of Zhuoneng lithium battery high nickel ternary material project was officially completed and put into production.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, the investment and expansion of domestic ternary materials has entered a period of intensive explosion.

In early June, Hanrui Cobalt Co., Ltd. plans to raise about 1.9 billion yuan for the construction of 10, 000 tons of metal cobalt and 26000 tons of ternary precursors. It is understood that the future cold sharp cobalt industry will continue to infiltrate into the lower reaches of the industrial chain, adding 26000 metal tons of ternary precursor project (type 811), which is scheduled to be put into production in 2023.

On May 26th, Grammy raised a total of 2.425 billion yuan in a non-public offering, which will be used for the company's investment in the production of ternary cathode materials for power batteries and 30,000 tons / year of ternary power battery precursors. On April 12, Grimmei and South Korea ECOPRO Co., Ltd. reached a cooperation in the business of NCA&NCM high nickel precursor materials for power batteries. Fu an Qingmei and ECOPRO set up a joint venture to produce high nickel precursors NCA and NCM, with a production target of 24000 tons in 2022 and 48000 tons in 2024.

On May 22nd, Huayou Cobalt Industry issued a plan to raise 6.25 billion yuan by way of inquiry and issuance, which will be used for the project of high nickel matte with an annual output of 45000 tons in Indonesia and the ternary precursor material for high-nickel power batteries in Quzhou with an annual output of 50, 000 tons. Among them, the total investment of high nickel ternary precursor project is 1.526 billion yuan.

On February 28th, the total amount of funds to be raised by Fengyuan shares in a non-public offering will not exceed 450 million yuan, which will be used for projects such as the construction of high-nickel ternary materials with an annual output of 10000 tons of lithium-ion batteries after deducting the issuance expenses.

For the necessity of project implementation, Fengyuan shares said that the rapid growth of ternary cathode materials, the trend of high nickel is obvious; expanding production capacity is the inevitable choice to enhance the company's market competitiveness. If the investment project and the previous project are successfully implemented, the company will have a production capacity of 15000 tons / year of ternary cathode materials, of which 10000 tons / year of high nickel ternary cathode materials will help the company to enter the first echelon of the subdivision industry.

Although there is a lot of cobalt-free sound recently, many people in the industry believe that ternary lithium battery is still one of the mainstream technology directions of power battery in the short term. In the recommended catalogue of new energy vehicles published in 2020, the energy density of the power battery system has exceeded that of 190Wh/Kg. From the perspective of power battery technology path planning in various countries, the energy density of power battery cells will generally reach more than 300Wh/Kg in 2020. Therefore, it seems that the high nickel ternary material, as the NCM cathode material with the highest energy density under the current technology level, is an important development direction of power battery in the future.

According to the forecast of industry institutions, the demand for cathode materials in China is expected to reach 402000 tons in 2020, including 144200 tons for ternary cathode materials and 97500 tons for high nickel ternary cathode materials, and the permeability of ternary cathode materials with high nickel is greatly increased. With the improvement of the quality of passenger cars and the continuous improvement of driving range, high nickel battery products such as NCM622 and even NCM811/NCA will become the mainstream of the market.

It is understood that up to now, the domestic Ningde era, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Bike Power, Lishen Battery, Vision AESC, Honeycomb Energy, Tafel, Universal 123, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Foo Energy Technology, BYD, Thornton New Energy, far East Foster, Penghui Energy, Carney New Energy, foreign LG Chemical, SKI, Samsung SDI and other battery companies have all laid out the NCM 811.

According to market research institutions, domestic enterprises that can produce high-nickel NCM811 ternary materials are mainly divided into three echelons: the first echelon enterprises have a monthly output of more than 500 tons of high-nickel ternary materials, and the second echelon enterprises have monthly output of more than 500 tons of high-nickel ternary materials, including Tianjin Bamo, Dangsheng Technology, Cedar Energy, etc.; the monthly output of the third echelon enterprises of high-nickel ternary materials is less than 100 tons.

It is not difficult to see that the high nickel trend of ternary materials is further accelerating, and high nickel (NCM811 and NCA) ternary materials with low cost and high energy density have become the focus of enterprise layout.

It is worth noting that from the perspective of the market pattern, different from the lithium battery level, the ternary material field does not have the situation of "one super and many strong", and the market share of the industry leader is only about 10%, and the market concentration is not high. At present, enterprises with a market share of no more than 5% can be found everywhere. Although the competition is fierce, the uncertainty is also higher. Perhaps the integration of resources and the survival of the fittest in this market are being carried out quietly, and we will continue to pay attention to the future market pattern.

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