SMM Evening Comments (Apr 2): Shanghai base metals mixed on Thursday, copper advanced on oil price rally

SHANGHAI, Apr 2 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals closed mixed on Thursday, with zinc leading the increase with a rise of 1.25%. 

Copper advanced 1.02%, nickel added 0.16%, while aluminium shed 0.56%, lead declined 0.18%, and tin slipped 1.37%. 

The ferrous complex mostly rose as iron ore expanded 2.85%, rebar rose 1.48%, hot-rolled coil increased 2.46%, coke went up 3.48% while stainless steel shed 0.33%. 

Crude oil prices jumped on Thursday, following their biggest-ever quarterly losses, as US President Donald Trump said he expected Saudi Arabia and Russia to reach a deal soon to end their oil price war.

Copper: The most-traded SHFE May contract returned above 39,000 yuan/mt and tested the 40,000 yuan/mt level as investors loaded up longs and covered shorts following the rally in crude oil prices. It ended the day 1.02% higher at 39,650 yuan/mt. With support from the 10-day moving average, it is likely to test support from 39600 yuan/mt. 

Aluminium: The most-active SHFE June contract received little support from the rebounded oil prices, as oversupply continued to weigh on sentiment, ending the contract down 0.56% on the day at 11,475 yuan/mt. SMM data showed that social inventories of primary aluminium in China continued to expand 9,000 mt this week. Trading range of the contract is expected at 11,220-11,620 yuan/mt on Friday. 

Zinc: Improved market sentiment lifted the most-traded SHFE June contract, which climbed on loaded-up longs, hitting an intraday high of 15,480 yuan/mt and ended up 1.25% on the day at 15,370 yuan/mt. Potential ore shortage driven by import disruptions also supported the optimistic prospects for prices.  

Nickel: The most-liquid SHFE June contract rebounded from below 90,000 yuan/mt, rising to a session high of 93,250 yuan/mt and closed the day 0.16% higher at 92,900 yuan/mt. It is expected to test pressure from 93,000 yuan/mt. 

Lead: The most-active SHFE May contract climbed after weakened to an intraday low of 13,520 yuan/mt, but it failed to recover the losses and closed down 0.18% on the day at 13,790 yuan/mt. Limited change in fundamentals may see the contract testing support from 13,500 yuan/mt. 

Tin: The most-liquid SHFE June contract gave up the increase from Wednesday, as it came down from an intraday high of 122,210 yuan/mt, closing down 1.37% on the day at 119,970 yuan/mt. Support is seen from 118,000 yuan/mt.