SMM10, March 30: recently, it was reported that nickel prices hovered between ups and downs as investors tried to interpret contradictory remarks by Indonesian policy makers on the timing of the ban on ore exports, which exacerbated the volatility of metals used in batteries and stainless steel.
On Monday, Indonesian authorities said they would immediately suspend ore exports and plan a deadline early next year. On Tuesday, Economic Affairs Coordination Minister Airlangga Hartarto told reporters that the January 1 deadline still exists. Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif later confirmed the timetable, saying the government would not issue any new export proposals until the January ban.
News of Indonesia's policy on ore exports this year has thrown the nickel market into chaos, a process that is likely to change several times. Nickel prices surged in September to their highest level since 2014 after President Joko Widodo said the ban would come into effect in early 2020, triggering competition for supply and a decline in inventories tracked by LME.
China exports almost all of Indonesia's nickel ore, so Indonesia's move will have a big impact on China. China's current nickel ore imports have hit a five-year high, suggesting that nickel ore users have been stepping up imports since Indonesia first announced an export ban at the end of August.
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. Howie Lee, an economist, commented ahead of the minister's latest speech: "overall, this appears to be part of a larger plan by Joko Widodo to expand the country's original ore refineries. We didn't see the huge price reaction in July and August, because the market is already priced to a large extent.
Nickel is still the best performing major base metal so far this year, rising 57 per cent in 2019. Indonesia will stop ore supplies, both now and in early 2020, to increase its incentive to boost value and process in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Now, electric car and battery makers who want raw materials must set up factories in Indonesia to get raw materials. The turmoil in the nickel market provides a lively backdrop for the annual LME week gathering of the metals industry in London. Denis Sharypin, an official with Russia's MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, said any immediate ban on Indonesian ore shipments would tighten supplies and be good for prices.
Denis Sharypin, head of market research at (Norilsk Nickel) Nickel in Norilsk, Russia, said the ban on Indonesian nickel ore exports had shrunk supply to the global market faster than miners and traders had originally expected. "until today, the market agreed that next year would be a turning point," he said. At present, it seems that the market will turn into a shortage of supply by 2020. " That would boost prices, he added.
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